ASTON VILLA head to Wolves on Saturday. Marcus Ally (@Marcus_Ally_4) oversees the Premier League encounter.
Wolves vs Aston Villa Betting | Saturday 12th December 2020, 12:30 | BT Sport
Wolves host Aston Villa in the first West Midlands derby of the season, with Nuno Espirito Santo’s men looking to repeat last season’s successes over the Villans.
Dean Smith’s men have played just the nine games this term, slightly playing catch-up with the majority of sides on 11, but remain just two points behind Wolves who suffered a humbling 4-0 defeat at Anfield last time out.
The hosts are narrow favourites as expected but Villa have already shown in abundance this season that they can be dangerous on the road. Back to back defeats at the hands of Brighton and West Ham have dragged them out of the top half however with this match coming 12 days after their last, they will be fully prepared to bounce back.
Process
Nuno has altered his style for this Premier League season, looking to build from the back a bit more and having a greater tactical flexibility, taking nervous strides away from their trusted back three system to operate with a back four. The adjustments have had mixed fortunes so far, but the common feeling is that they are improving slowly.
These developments have seen them trend as a lower mid table team posting attacking numbers of 11 goals and 13.3 xG which ranks them 15th and 14th respectively. The figures are also hampered by the absence of Raul Jimenez in recent weeks causing the Portuguese coach to shuffle his pack even further, January signing Daniel Podence is now a crucial attacking cog given greater importance since the departure of Diogo Jota.
The defence has remained sturdy, letting in 15 goals in their 11 outings, Conor Coady looks a little out of position in a central defensive two compared to a three but it is a work in progress.
Aston Villa have seen a huge upturn in their fortunes since lockdown and have continued their great escape momentum into this season, despite the games in hand they sit sixth in the xG table.
Seventh for goals scored, 20, and xG scored, 18.2, whilst fourth and third for their rearguard action, that last statistic helped a touch by playing less, but there has been a remarkable improvement in the partnership of Ezri Konsa and Tyrone Mings.
The two Englishman looked destined to return to the second tier before the 2019/20 was suspended and now are one of the best pairs in the division.
The betting angles
A Both Teams To sSore punt has only won in four of Wolves’ last 12 and five of Villa’s last 12. I would expect the hosts to tighten up after the Liverpool defeat so that is an area to get against.
Wolves have kept four clean sheets to Villa’s five and have been less creative so Dean Smith’s men look intriguing outsiders, but opposing goals is my angle with a nice little double for insurance as we have seen in the past Wolves love to turn it on in the second period.
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