League Two: Stats & Trends | WLB Season Preview 2020/21

WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new League Two campaign. 

WLB Season Preview 2020/21 | League Two: Stats & Trends

League Winners (since 2000/01)

• Average price – 16/1.
• Average position finished year previously – 10th.
• 13 (68%) of the past 19 League Two title winners were priced up at double-figure odds.
• 12 (63%) of the past 19 League Two title winners were priced up at 12/1 or larger.
• 6 (32%) of the past 19 league winners this century were priced at 20/1 or larger.
• 6 (32%) of the past 19 winners were priced at single-figure odds.
• 5 (26%) of the past 19 League Two title winners failed in the play-offs the year previous.
• 2 (11%) of the past 19 League Two title winners had just been promoted from the National League.
• 2 (11%) of the past 19 League Two title winners had just been relegated from League One.

Top 3 Finishers (since 2000/01)

• Average price – 18/1.
• Average position finished year previously – 10th. Fourteen (25%) were relegated clubs, with 11 (19%) having been involved in an unsuccessful play-off bid the year previous; 29 (51%) had posted a top-half with 9 (16%) arriving after a bottom-half berth. Meanwhile, 5 (9%) top-three finishers were promoted clubs from the National League.
• 11 (58%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top three.
• 3 (16%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.

Favourites (since 2000/01)

• Average finishing position – 7th.
• Average price of the favourites – 11/2 (Bradford are 9/1 this season).
• Portsmouth (2016/17) and Notts County (2009/10) are the only winning favourites this century – an 11% title win rate over the past 19 seasons.
• 10 (53%) of the past 19 favourites this century have won promotion, 9 (47%) via a top-three finish.
• 12 (57%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished in the top-seven.
• 7 (37%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished outside the top-seven with 5 (26%) in the bottom-half and 1 (5%) being relegated.

Relegated Clubs (since 2000/01)

• Relegated clubs have won League Two in 2/19 seasons (11%) this century.
• Average finishing position of a relegated club – 12th.
• 20/76 (26%) clubs have won promotion straight back to League One with 25 (33%) finishing in the top-seven, and 41 (54%) in the top-half. Meanwhile, 35 (46%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 4 (5%) suffered a second successive relegation.

Promoted Clubs (since 2000/01)

• Average finishing position of a promoted club – 13th.
• Both promoted clubs have survived in every League Two season in the modern era – the last time a promoted non-league club suffered immediate was 1987.
• 7 (20%) promoted clubs have won promotion again this century, 10 (29%) have finished in the top-seven with 14 (40%) tabling top-half finishes. Alternatively, 21 (60%) concluded their campaign in the bottom-half.

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns (since 2000/01)

• The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 10th.
• 3 (16%) of the 19 play-off final losers have bounced back by gaining promotion in the following campaign – 14 (74%) registered top-seven finishes again and 15 (79%) concluded in the top-half. However, 4 (21%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half.
• The average finishing position of a side involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign is 10th.
• 14 (25%) teams involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign has bounced back to win promotion the year after falling, with 26 (46%) tabling another top-seven finish and 36 (63%) registering a top-half finish. However, 21 (37%) ended in the bottom-half with 2 (4%) relegated.

Any Other Business (since 2000/01)

• The top-scoring side (or joint-top) in League Two has been crowned champions in 5/19 (26%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 16 (79%) occasions (average finish 3rd).
• The lowest scoring side (or joint-lowest) in League Two has been relegated in 9/19 (47%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 9 (47%) occasions (average finish 22nd).
• The best defence (or joint-best) in League Two has been crowned champions in 11/19 (58%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 16/19 (84%) seasons (average finish 2nd)
• The side with the worst defence (or joint-worse) in League Two has been relegated in 10/19 (53%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 8 (42%) occasions (average finish 21st).

*Stats and trends do not include the incomplete 2019/20 campaign

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