League One: Stats & Trends | WLB Season Preview 2020/21

WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) to enter his bulging stats bible to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new League One campaign. 

WLB Season Preview 2020/21 | League One: Stats & Trends

League Winners (since 2000/01)

• Average price – 18/1.
• Average position finished year previously – 11th.
• 10 (53%) of the past 19 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.
• 9 (81%) of the past 11 League One title winners were priced at single-figure odds.
• 6 (32%) of the past 19 League One title winners had just been relegated from the Championship.
• 5 (26%) of the past 19 League One title winners were priced at 20/1 or larger
• 3 (16) of the past 19 League One title winners had just been promoted from League Two.
• 1 (5%) of the past 19 league winners failed in the play-offs the year previous.

Top 3 Finishers (since 2000/01)

• Average price – 19/1.
• Average position finished year previously – 9th – 12 (21%) had failed in the play-offs the year previously, 11 (19%) were relegated clubs and 8 (14%) had just been promoted the year previous.
• 10 (53%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 20/1 or larger finish in the top three.
• 6 (32%) of the past 19 seasons has seen a side priced up at 40/1 or larger finish in the top three.

Favourites (since 2000/01)

• Average finishing position – 4th.
• Average price of the favourites – 9/2 – Sunderland are 4/1 this season.
• Sheffield United (2016/17) and Wolves (2013/14) are the only winning favourites this century – an 11% title win rate in that sample – and only winning favourites since 1994.
• 16 (84%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished in the top-six.
• 10 (53%) of the past 19 favourites this century have been promoted.
• 8 (42%) of the past 19 favourites this century have won automatic promotion.
• 3 (16%) of the past 19 favourites this century have finished outside the top-six but zero have finished in the bottom-half.

Relegated Clubs (since 2000/01)

• Relegated clubs have won the Championship in 6/19 seasons (32%).
• Average finishing position of a relegated club – 10th.
• In 9 (81%) of the last 11 seasons a relegated club has won promotion and bounced straight back to the Championship.
• 15/57 (26%) clubs have won promotion straight back to the Championship with 22 (39%) finishing in the top-six, 42 (60%) in the top-half. Meanwhile, 23 (40%) finished in the bottom-half whilst 6 (11%) suffered back-to-back relegation.

Promoted Clubs (since 2000/01)

• Average finishing position of a promoted club – 13th.
• Only 10/76 (13%) promoted clubs have suffered immediate relegation.
• All four promoted clubs have survived in 9 (47%) of the 19 seasons this century.
• 8 (11%) promoted clubs have won promotion again, 16 (21%) have finished in the top-six with 38 (50%) tabling top-half finishes. Alternatively, 38 (50%) concluded their campaign in the bottom-half with 10 (13%) suffering immediate demotion.

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns (since 2000/01)

• The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 10th.
• 6 (31%) of the 19 play-off final losers have bounced back to win promotion the following season – 9 (47%) registered top-six finishes and 12 (63%) concluded in the top-half. However, 7 (37%) ended their next campaign in the bottom-half with 3 (16%) relegated.
• The average finishing position of a side involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign is 10th.
• 13 (23%) teams involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign have bounced back to win promotion this century – 24 (42%) tabling another top-six finish and 38 (67%) registering a top-half finish. However, 19 (33%) ended in the bottom-half with 6 (11%) relegated.

Any Other Business (since 2000/01)

• The top-scoring (or joint-top) side in League One has been crowned champions in 11/19 (58%) seasons this century, winning promotion on 15 (79%) occasions (average finish 2nd).
• The lowest (or joint-lowest) scoring side in League One has been relegated in 12/19 (63%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 5 (26%) occasions (average finish 21st).
• The best defence (or joint-best) in League One has been crowned champions in 11/19 (63%) seasons this century, winning promotion in 17/19 (89%) seasons (average finish 2nd)
• The side with the worst defence in League One has been relegated in 15/19 (79%) seasons this century, finishing rock-bottom on 5 (26%) occasions (average finish 21st).

*Stats and trends do not include the incomplete 2019/20 campaign

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