WIMBLEDON returns on Monday. Here tennis analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) shares his favourite fancies from SW19.
Wimbledon outright update
It is the halfway point of Wimbledon and as we head into the business end of the tournament it is time to report back on how are outright’s are fairing.
Mens outright updates
On the men’s side one of our two selections is still active. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lost out to Sam Querrey in a five set tussle. It is a pity that the Frenchman had an underperformance in that match as he was getting close to a quarter-final date with a far from impressive Andy Murray. I don’t have the same confidence in Querrey challenging Murray that I had with Tsonga.
The other selection in the men’s draw is for Marin Cilic to win the 2nd Quarter. As was predicted, the Croatian is on a collision course with Rafa Nadal to determine a semi-finalist.
We backed Cilic at 4/1, and there has not been much of a movement on his price due to the strong form of his Spanish rival. Nadal is a best price 4/9 to win the quarter, and despite his impressive form that price is on the skinny side.
Women’s outright updates
The picture is a little rosier in the women’s event in what looks like being another open draw in Serena Williams’ absence.
In the 1st Quarter my selection was for Lucie Safarova to advance to the semi-finalist but we were dealt an unfortunate blow when the doubles specialist played her 2nd Round match with Shelby Rogers shortly after her partner Bethanie Mattek-Sands was stopped by a horrific injury. The emotional effect on Safarova told in her defeat.
Kerber’s form has been underwhelming and she is only the second favourite to advance from the 1st Quarter. Garbine Muguruza is the favourite at 7/4 to make the semi from that quarter, and whilst it is justified I don’t think it represents value given the Spaniard regular inconsistency issues.
The 2nd Quarter is looking good for us. We backed Coco Vandeweghe to win at 17/2 and she is now favourite to advance at a best price of 11/8. It won’t be a simple task as Vandeweghe must overcome Caroline Wozniacki and Magdalena Rybarikova, both of which are very decent on the grass.
Vandeweghe is favoured to beat Wozniacki, and if she comes through that she would be favourite to beat Rybarikova too.
We also have Vandeweghe to win the event outright at 22/1, and she is currently the tournament’s second favourite at 7/1. In the 4th Quarter our selection at the start of the tournament was Simona Halep.
We backed the Romanian at 8/1, and today she is a best price of 14/5 to come through. I fancy her chances of getting to the semis as she is in Jo Konta’s quarter.
The Brit has attracted a lot of patriotic money and is the outright favourite. Konta has been playing well but she is being overrated, and in their projected quarterfinal meeting I think Halep will certainly have a good chance of beating Konta.
Johanna Konta v Caroline Garcia | Monday 13:00 | BBC
It has been a solid tournament so far for the bookmakers and again the markets look fairly solid on Day 7. I do however believe that Jo Konta is being overrated, and this looks to be the case in her match with Caroline Garcia.
Throughout the tournament Konta has had a lot of praise for her serving performance, but if you compare their performance statistics they are roughly the same on grass, and in fact Garcia’s serve actually that little bit more consistent on this surface this season.
Konta served up two heavy beatings to Garcia last season on the hard courts, but Garcia reversed that trend this season when she edged a third set tiebreak at Indian Wells.
Reminiscing of that match Konta said, “We played in Indian Wells. I lost to her I think 7/6 in the third there, so it was a very close match. I don’t anticipate anything different, other than a really, really tough battle for me.”
Over the long term Garcia has been the better grass court player, with Konta’s level in recent months far improved from her historic performance. Konta is being treated as at best a 2/5 shot to defeat Garcia, but it looks set to be a lot closer than that.
I can see reason in backing Garcia to win at 19/8 with Marathon but I’ll recommend backing Garcia with a +4.5 game handicap at 4/6 with Bet365.
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Johanna Konta v Caroline Garcia – Caroline Garcia +4.5 game handicap (4/6 Bet365)
