TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) returns with his best bets from Wednesday’s action on Day 9 at Wimbledon.
We were on the right side of the value on Monday, but not on the right outcome as Kiki Bertens was defeated by Julia Goerges in their quarter-final.
The Netherlander had started as a slight outsider but was backed into a favourite to win the match prior to the start of the match. Things were going according to plan in the early stages as Bertens clinched the opening set, but her level dropped at the end of the second set and she never recovered.
Goerges smelt blood and hit a slumping Bertens off the court in an impressive final set display from the German.
Wednesday will see the men take to the court to play their quarter-final matches. It looks highly likely that Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic will be two of the participants, whilst Juan Martin del Potro will have to play a lot better than he did against Gilles Simon if he is to prevent Rafael Nadal from joining his ‘Big 4’ contemporaries in the semi-finals.
The fourth of the semi-finals features the two biggest servers on tour, and looks the only match that has obvious pre-match betting potential.
John Isner v Milos Raonic | Wednesday 11th July 2018, 15:00 | BBC
The big serving duo have met four times, with John Isner leading their head to head 3-1. The pair have played nine sets, and seven of them – including the last five – have been decided by a tiebreak.
Not only that, but six of the seven tiebreaks were determined by just the one mini-break. Unsurprisingly, there are quotations of 1/100 for a tiebreak to feature in this match.
In previewing this match Milos Raonic said, “It is going to come down to one, two, three points here and there. That’s pretty much it. I don’t think we’re going to have many consecutive opportunities on each other’s serves. It’s going to be coming down to those moments about being sharp in the right moments, who is going to be able to step up and be the one that’s able to dictate, putting more pressure on the other guy. I think it’s going to be decided by small margins. Strength on strength for sure.”
Isner tends to beat Raonic quite comfortably in the Ace count between the pair and can be found at a best price 8/13 with Skybet to edge that battle – but it’s a little bit on the skinny side for me to back personally.
There will be little to choose between this pair – so the match odds market does not interest me – and as Raonic states, the match will come down to a point here or there.
What does seem possible is that if both players share out at least one of the first three sets, a high total games total will be reached.
The line on total games is high – but justifiably so. Three tie break sets will equate to 39 total games. A four set match featuring three tie breaks and allowing for one set to contain one break of serve could total 48 games. If it goes to five sets the match could go on for hours and the overs line would be very easily reached.
There are several total games lines available, but the over 46.5 game line has a little bit extra security implied than some of the more fanciful out there.
Let’s hope the players split one of the first three sets, and the over 46.5 games available at 5/6 with Bet365 cashes.
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John Isner v Milos Raonic – Over 46.5 games (5/6 )
