ARSENAL travel to Tottenham in Sunday’s Premier League highlight. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Tottenham vs Arsenal | Sunday 6th December 2020, 16:30 | Sky Sports
Spurs welcome back some fans for the first time in what seems like forever, and it couldn’t be in a bigger fixture – the North London derby.
These two have often competed on a level footing in the past decade or so, however the contrast between the rivals this season is stark. Spurs can go back top with a win whilst Arsenal are languishing in the bottom half.
Have the Gunners been unlucky? Not a chance. In all honesty, they’ve been way under par for a good year now. Their performance data is alarming, Mikel Arteta has opted for a more defensive-minded approach but it’s come at a cost with his side ranking as one of the worst in the league for attempts on goal and touches inside the box. There’s been a clamour for them to bring in link man to attach the midfield and attack in January, but even if they did, Arteta plays too deep to make them have any influence.
Balance has been something that’s deserted the Gunners for a long while now. Under Unai Emery they’d score quite a few but also give away heaps of chances, it’s swing the other way now and the majority of their games go Under 2.5 Goals.
Away from home they’ve been far too happy with draws, it shows the lack of ambition that is beset in the club at the minute. Just four wins on the road last season was a shameful effort and they say they’re approaching games I wouldn’t be surprised to see such a meagre feat occur this time around.
Jose Mourinho, on the other hand, does deserve some credit. He’s balanced the Premier League and Europa League well thus far and it looks like they may have a serious run at that sought after silverware. The signings particularly of Pierre Emile Hojberg and Sergio Reguilon have been inspired and added some fire as well as quality to the ranks.
Mou also has a terrific record against Arsenal when playing as hosts. The last ten home games he’s had against them his sides has avoided defeat.
The betting angles
Spurs are rightful favourites here and the fact they’re almost a point shorter in the betting than they were for this fixture last season is testament to their progression. 21/20 quotes will tempt a few in but I’d want the draw onside too given how often it occurs in this fixture.
It’s two managers who are happy for games to be played on fine margins too so I’d look to oppose goals. With that in mind I’ll head to the Betbuilder market and take Tottenham Double Chance, Under 5 Goals and Each Team Over 0 Cards – this pays 5/6.
Spurs and Arsenal have picked up at least 1 card in 9/10 combined home/away games. Go back to last season and it occurred in 33/38 games. Chuck in the fact it’s a feisty derby and the return of some fans and it looks like a good thing.
I’ll also head to the passes market as the aforementioned Reguilon stands out to go over his line of 48.5. The Spaniard has overcome that particular line in 4/6 league games this season, he hit exactly 48 in one of the others whilst the other where he failed to go over was against possession monopolisers Manchester City. Reguilon averaged 53 passes per 90 in his last two seasons as well.
Arsenal average just 44% possession on the road, only five teams are lower in that regard. They don’t tend to press either as shape and structure is at the heart of Arteta’s thinking.
TOPICS Premier League TipsBest Bets
Tottenham vs Arsenal – Tottenham Double Chance, Under 5 Goals and Each Team Over 0 Cards (5/6 Bet365)
Tottenham vs Arsenal – Sergio Reguilon Over 48.5 Passes (5/6 Bet365)
