Stats: Two underrated hosts worth siding with on Saturday in the Bundesliga

STATS genius Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Saturday afternoon’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the trends.

Werder Bremen v Schalke | Saturday 16th September 2017, 14:30

Analysing the market perception of Werder Bremen v Schalke indicates an implied probability of 38% being given to the hosts, the draw 29.5% and visitors a 37.8%. With the market unable to split them, I think there is value in the home win.

With Frank Baumann’s side possessing an implied probability of 38%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 36% and 50% – 43% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.32.

Observing the current market perception of Schalke indicates an implied probability of 37.8%. This situates the Royal Bues within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of games equating to odds of 2.70 for home sides.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 40.40% equating to odds of 2.50 means there’s value on the River Islanders to take all three points at 89/50 with Marathon.

Stuttgart v Wolfsburg | Saturday 16th September 2017, 14:30

Analysing the market perception of Stuttgart v Wolfsburg indicates an implied probability of 41% being given to the hosts, the draw 32% and the visitors a 32% chance. The market makes the hosts’ favourite and I agree, it’s good to have them onside.

With the Swabians possessing an implied probability of 41%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 36% and 50% – 43% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.32.

Observing the current market perception of Wolfsburg indicates an implied probability of 32% – this situates Andries Jonker side within the away probability range of 25% and 36.7%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 43% of matches, equating to odds of 2.32.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 43% equating to odds of 2.32 means there’s value for Stuttgart (6/4 BetVictor) to seal maximum points at the Mercedes-Benz Arena.

Best Bets

Werder Bremen v Schalke – Werder Bremen to win (89/50 Marathon)

Stuttgart v Wolfsburg – Stuttgart to win (6/4 BetVictor)