A profitable weekend for Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) last weekend; he’s back with three more picks this Saturday.
Stoke v Burnley | Saturday 15:00
Can’t really figure out the price of this one. I’m going Under 2.5 Goals at the Bet365 as Stoke host Burnley. The home side are ebbing towards the 4/7 mark so perhaps there’s a suspicion that they could punish their visitors. I’m happy to oppose that line of thought.
Both this pair are pretty unfashionable but I’ve got a huge soft spot for each of them. It’s just one defeat in eight Premier League matches for Stoke now and if they had played to form and beat Bournemouth here last month they would have been level on points with Everton and one off Manchester United. If’s and but’s of course.
Burnley put up another gritty performance on Saturday as they were edged out 2-1 by Man City at Turf Moor. It was a fine display after getting somewhat humiliated by West Brom five days earlier.
So, for me that’s lots to like about these sides and while Stoke should secure three points I can’t seem cruising past the Clarets. For starters, they’ve scored just 14 goals this season which puts them below their table ranking. Swansea and Crystal Palace have both notched more.
Their defence has also really sorted itself out after a poor start to the campaign. Since a 4-1 loss to Palace in September, Stoke have conceded just five goals in their following eight top-flight games. Impressive.
When looking at Burnley, one has to assess their home and away form separately as they read starkly different. Sean Dyche’s side have won 14 Premier League points this season and only one of those have come away from Turf Moor.
The Clarets lie bottom of the Away Table and worryingly for me have conceded Over 2.5 Team Goals in four of these five matches. On the basis that I’m hoping they’re improving plus the fact that Stoke have scored more than one goal in just three of their 13 league games this season I’m happy to back Unders at Evens with Marathon Bet.
Tottenham v Swansea | Saturday 15:00
Last weekend Swansea accrued three Premier League points, Spurs collected none. But of course that only tells half the story. Let’s be honest, Tottenham deserved much more from their toils than the Swans did.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side were superb in the first half against Chelsea and had Antonio Conte’s men on the ropes as they led 1-0 at Stamford Bridge. Sadly for them the second half wasn’t quite as effective and they lost 2-1 but there were many positives.
A couple of hours earlier Bob Bradley enjoyed his first win as Swansea manager, but the 5-4 win over Crystal Palace really was a shambles and there were many negatives.
It may be the case that that win for Swansea fires up the club and pushes them up the table but I’m not convinced. It’s a moot point as to whether the players are behind Bradley and they still remain on my dodge list.
It’s been a poor reaction to their brilliant win over Man City for Spurs, a tally of just one victory in their following 10 matches is a worry and they also have a Champions League exit on their CV.
Yes, those stats are worrying but delve deeper into the level of opponent Spurs have faced and things become a little more excusable. Champions League matches against Bayer Leverkusen and French flyers Monaco have sat alongside fixtures with Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal. It’s been a stiff test.
I think this match provides them with an ideal opportunity to restore confidence and I’ll back them -1.5 at 49/50 with Marathon Bet. The attacking verve they showed last Saturday (if replicated here) could overwhelm shambolic Swansea.
West Ham v Arsenal | Saturday 17:30 | BT Sport 1
This has the feel of a really feisty match on Saturday night and it looks like a tough assignment for 3/4 favourites Arsenal. They need three points let’s be honest.
I had a quick glance at previous results in this fixture and was surprised to see Arsenal have won seven of the last nine matches in East London.
The last time West Ham beat Arsenal on their own patch was in November 2006 when then manager Alan Pardew had a bit of a tiff with Arsene Wenger.
Last season the match played out how I’d like to imagine these games with Andy Carroll scoring an eight minute hat-trick as Arsenal were pulled back from 2-0 up to 3-2 down. The Gunners eventually scored an equaliser but it was another damaging post-Leicester win result for the North London side.
Eight months on from that match, West Ham arrive in much poorer shape and with Upton Park a distant memory. The Hammers lie 16th in the table 12 positions and 16 points behind Arsenal.
Manager Slaven Bilic is under pressure but there are signs of recovery. It’s two defeats in their last seven Premier League matches for West Ham and those losses came against Top 8 sides Spurs and Everton.
The positives relate to a draw at Old Trafford on Sunday and that gutsy loss to Spurs two weeks ago where it looked like the Hammers would leave White Hart Lane with a 2-1 win.
After conceding 14 goals in four league matches between late-August and late-September, things have tightened up since with just eight leaked in the next seven matches. Things are improving.
Arsenal have now conceded in their last seven all-competition matches and that’s the key angle for me. Title talk has quietened down after a run of two league wins in five matches and there are issues and injuries to address.
Despite their dominance in this fixture I’m not keen on backing them at 3/4 and instead will take a goals route and back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at Evens.
The bet has paid out in three of Arsenal’s last six league matches and in three of West Ham’s last six all-competition matches. Let’s hope it cops again.
TOPICS English Football Tips Football Premier League TipsBest Bets
Stoke v Burnley – Under 2.5 Goals (Evens Marathon Bet)
Tottenham v Swansea – Tottenham -1.5 (49/50 Marathon Bet)
West Ham v Arsenal – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (Evens Marathon Bet)
