PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday’s 3pm card, sharing his best bets.
Huddersfield v Arsenal | Saturday 9th February 2019, 15:00
Arsenal suffered their seemingly standard defeat away to a member of the Big Six last week, but I think they can return to winning ways in West Yorkshire this weekend.
In the latter years under Arsene Wenger, the North London side gained a reputation as flat track bullies due to the ease in which they swept aside sides of inferior ability and the difficulties they found against those seen as their peers.
Under Unai Emery that tag has not shifted, with Arsenal securing 39 points from a possible 51 against sides outside the Big Six. However, what interests me is the volume of goals they have let in in those fixtures. Indeed, they’ve conceded in all eight away games against sides from seventh down.
Huddersfield may be adrift at the bottom of the table but they do have to score sooner or later and their xG of 16.88 across their 25 league games is almost four more than their actual return.
I was tempted by the 2-1 and 3-1 correct scores but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Arsenal netted more than that so I will play it relatively safely and simply back Arsenal and Both Teams To Score at 49/20.
Four of Arsenal’s eight away games against sides from seventh down have seen this bet land so I am confident that the odds are on our side.
Southampton v Cardiff | Saturday 9th February 2019, 15:00
It’s another simple one for me, I would oppose Cardiff on their travels against anyone in this division. Odds of 4/5 may seem skinny given that Southampton have won just two of their 12 home matches but Cardiff are the best guests you could hope for when attempting to improve that record.
The Bluebirds have just one win and two draws from 13 matches away from home and that one victory came via a 92nd minute winner at Leicester in a game that they lost the xG 1.52 vs 0.49. In recent weeks they’ve lost 3-0 at Newcastle and manage just three shots at home to Huddersfield and there is nothing to suggest that their away form will improve.
Over the course of this season, Cardiff average fewer than three shots on target on their travels and face more than six.
Moreover, since Ralph Hassenhutl took charge at St Marys, the Saints have beaten Arsenal and Everton on their home patch and I don’t believe a return of seven points from five games is too shabby, especially when Manchester City were also in that sample.
4/5 may seem skinny at first glance but I am happy to take BetVictor up on this price.
TOPICS English Football Tips Premier League TipsBest Bets
Huddersfield v Arsenal – Arsenal to win and Both Teams To Score (49/20 888)
Southampton v Cardiff – Southampton to win (4/5 BetVictor)
