PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) takes a look at Saturday’s 3pm night’s action, picking out his best bets.
West Ham v Leicester | Saturday 20th April 2019, 15:00
I struggle to believe that there is a more inconsistent side in the Premier League that West Ham. It’s hard to decide which Hammers side will turn up this weekend: the one who went to Old Trafford, outplayed the home side and won the shot count 18-14 or the one that lost 2-0 at home to Everton while having just three attempts to their opponents 17.
Leicester have 12 points from six games under Brendan Rodgers but have had a relatively easy run of fixtures. They are yet to face a top six side and their four victories have come against three of the most out of form sides in the league – Huddersfield, Fulham and Bournemouth – and a quite fortunate victory at Burnley.
Indeed, while I do believe that Rodgers will be a success in the East Midlands, I wouldn’t go near his side at a best price of 13/10 for this encounter.
Instead, I like the look of Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals, which is available at 20/21 with Boylesports. This bet has been a winner in four of Rodgers six games as Foxes boss and at this stage of the season – with little for either to play for – I can see this game getting out of hand.
I wouldn’t be surprised if either side won by a silly scoreline so think this is a fairly safe play.
Wolves v Brighton | Saturday 20th April 2019, 15:00
This game is the reverse fixture of one of my most unfortunate losses this season. Despite Wolves winning the shot count at The Amex 25-7, they somehow lost the match. I remember writing at the time that this was during a run of three 1-0 victories for the Sussex side, during which they faced 69 shots yet somehow failed to concede.
Wolves lost 3-1 at Southampton last week, which suits the ‘they’ve lost motivation since losing an FA Cup semi-final’ agenda, but given that they dominated possession and the shot count against the Saints, I don’t think they are ‘on the beach’. Seventh place is still a very real possibility and I expect them to be on the front foot at Molineux on Saturday afternoon.
My first preference was to back a 1-0 victory for both sides but having looked at the stats that feels like too much of a gut feel, so instead I will chance Both Teams To Score at 6/5 with Ladbrokes.
Seventeen of Wolves’ 33 Premier League games have seem both sides net and it’s an identical stat for Brighton. Indeed, while I expect Brighton to try and keep it tight, recent evidence suggests they don’t have the ability to.
All things considered, this looks like the statistical bet.
TOPICS Premier League TipsBest Bets
West Ham v Leicester – Both Teams To Score and Over 2.5 Goals (20/21 Boylesports)
Wolves v Brighton – Both Teams To Score (6/5 Ladbrokes)
