THE Premier League continues on Saturday and our man Daniel McCulloch (danmcc84) shares his best bets from the 3pm fixtures.
Crystal Palace v Leicester | Saturday 28th April 2018, 15:00
The first market I looked at here was both teams to score. Unfortunately, however, while I believe a best price of 7/10 is quite fair given that this bet has obliged in 22 of Leicester’s 34 league games (more than any other side) and in nine of Palace’s last 12, I try to find prices at 5/6 and greater as a general rule.
Therefore the over 2.5 goals market was my next port of call. Marathon price this at 22/25, suggesting that there is a 53% chance there are three goals or more in this game.
Since Roy Hodgson became Crystal Palace manager, 18 of their 31 (58%) Premier League games have seen three goals or more. At Selhurst Park their record looks even more positive, with 10 of their 15 games (67%) obliging.
They face a Leicester side who have been similarly entertaining. Claude Puel gained a reputation as a dour manager when Southampton boss but that has certainly not been the case at The Foxes. In the 26 games they’ve played since Craig Shakespeare left, 15 (58%) have seen three goals or more.
Their games on the road have been particularly exciting, with 10 of 13 (77%) seeing the over 2.5 angle emerge victorious.
Basically, every stat you look at suggests that 22/25 is too big a price on this bet winning, so take advantage of the odds on offer with Marathon.
Huddersfield v Everton | Saturday 28th March 2018, 15:00
I backed Huddersfield DNB against Watford a fortnight ago and I am taking the same angle when they host an Everton side who are hopeless on the road.
With games against Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal to come, the Terriers know that they need a result here to ensure they no longer need to look over their shoulder.
However, it is their comparative records and not their need that leads me to side with them. If you look at their home results against sides from seventh down, it reads W5-D5-L2. The only sides they have lost against are West Ham and Crystal Palace, both of whom possess greater attacking talent than the Toffees.
Since Sam Allardyce took over as Everton boss, their away record reads W2-D3-L5, scored eight, conceded 17. Their two victories were both fortuitous – a single goal victory at Newcastle and a 2-1 win over Stoke when the hosts had a player sent off after 30 minutes with the game at 0-0. Last time out they drew 1-1 at Swansea who are, to my mind, easily one of the worst three sides in the league.
They were indebted to Jordan Pickford for keeping them in that game, losing the shot count 17-12 and shots on target 7-3. After the game Allardyce once again bemoaned his sides passing ability and I saw little in the home game against Newcastle on Monday night to suggest an improvement.
Simply put, they look a poor side under the former England boss and I am happy to back Huddersfield at 5/6 with BetVictor in the Draw No Bet market.
Newcastle v West Brom | Saturday 28th April 2018, 15:00
I make no secret of the fact that I am a West Brom fan but I very rarely back them to win a game (thankfully). I’ve backed them once in this column, a Draw No Bet pick against Everton. Having led for 60 plus minutes, they drew the game 1-1 but that was the bare minimum they deserved, winning the shots, shots on target and expected goals metrics.
At 41/10 with Marathon Bet, I do believe West Brom are too big in this one. Newcastle have lost six home games this season and it isn’t simply a case that they’ve been outclassed by the top sides. Leicester, Watford, Everton and Bournemouth have all left St James’ Park with three points and with the exception of Claude Puel’s men, I believe that West Brom’s performance data mirrors all of those sides.
Additionally, Albion are unbeaten in three games under interim boss Darren Moore. Whether they are a different side under the Caretaker Manager or he is simply benefiting from a bit of luck that former boss Alan Pardew did not get is open to debate but what is undeniable is that the five points Albion have gained from his three games in charge are no more than they have deserved.
They really should have beaten Swansea in his first game in charge, matched Manchester United in terms of chance creation at Old Trafford and despite Jurgen Klopp’s bewildering claim otherwise, merited their draw at home to Liverpool last week according to every key performance metric going.
Anything but a victory will confirm West Brom’ s relegation which is why I would prefer a smaller stake at a bigger price than chance The Baggies in the DNB market. Marathon’s 41/10 on The Albion outright provides us with this opportunity.
TOPICS Premier League TipsBest Bets
Crystal Palace v Leicester – Over 2.5 Goals (22/25 Marathon)
Huddersfield v Everton – Huddersfield draw no bet (3/4 William Hill)
Newcastle v West Brom – West Brom to win (41/10 Marathon)
