CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Sunday’s FA Cup showdown between Newcastle and Manchester City.
Newcastle vs Manchester City | Sunday 28th June 2020, 18:30 | BBC
It’s been a difficult week for Pep Guardiola’s men. Whilst Manchester City have been resigned to the fact Liverpool would take their Premier League crown for months, the fashion in which it happened is a bitter pill to swallow – falling to a Willian penalty 12 minutes from time on Thursday night at Chelsea.
However, t’s not all doom and gloom. City have already retained the League Cup and are in a strong position in the Champions League. They’re also in the running to retain another domestic trophy, the FA Cup.
In recent years when City have visited Newcastle, they have been games of huge importance, and this one will be no different. The winners of this fixture will be rewarded with a place in the semi-finals, merely a win away from the Wembley showpiece and the most prestigious domestic competition on the planet.
Key Stats
Newcastle:
- Commit on average 10.1 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Received on average 10.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
- Have lost just 3 Premier League home games this season.
- Have seen at least 1 card in every FA Cup home game dating back to 2012.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 2/5 home EPL games when playing teams in the top 6.
- In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 3/5 occasions.
- Have scored in 4/5 home EPL games against teams in the top 6.
- Have conceded in 3/5 home EPL games against teams in the top 6.
- Have seen over 2.5 goals land in their last four games against Manchester City in all competitions.
Manchester City:
- Commit on average 10.4 fouls per game when playing away.
- Receive on average 7.9 fouls per game when playing away (fifth lowest).
- Have lost 6 away games in the EPL this season but 5 of those have been to teams in the top half.
- Have seen at least 1 card in 7/7 away games to teams in the bottom half.
- Have seen 2+ cards in 4/7 away games to teams in the bottom half this season.
- In those games the opposition has seen at least 1 card on 7/7 occasions and 2+ cards on 4/7 occasions.
- City have won all of their last 9 FA Cup matches.
Analysis
As always, whomever Guardiola deploys is anyone’s guess. The Citizens play Liverpool at the Etihad on Thursday and although Jurgen Klopp’s men have already sealed the title, Pep might look to rest a few key players against Newcastle. On the flipside, I also think this is another trophy that City will want to retain and as such I think we’ll initially see a strong line-up from the visitors.
With Fernandinho serving a suspension, Eric Garcia and John Stones both doubtful I’d imagine that Nicolas Otamendi and Aymeric Laporte will be in the heart of the City defence.
The Blue Moon have played just one FA Cup game away this campaign and it was a narrow 1-0 victory at Sheffield Wednesday. On top of this, in their last six head-to-heads against Newcastle, City have only won by two clear goals on one occasion –3-1 at the Etihad. In the four most recent meetings at St. James’ Park, City have failed to score three goals on each occasion.
The Asian Handicap is currently Newcastle +2 at just under evens (20/21) on Bet365 and I think it’s a great bet. I can see this game being quite tight with a semi-final at stake and I also don’t think referee Lee Mason will be getting his cards out on a consistent basis.
Whilst playing the unders is always risky, particularly in a game featuring City, I think the statistics, along with previous form, would suggest a tight affair with few goals.
TOPICS English Football Tips FA Cup Tips FootballBest Bets
Newcastle vs Manchester City – Newcastle +2 Asian Handicap (20/21 Bet36%)
Newcastle vs Manchester City – Under 3 Manchester City Goals, Under 4 Cards, Under 16.5 Manchester City Free-Kicks (11/5 Bet365)
