NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from Saturday afternoon’s coupon.
Solihull Moors v Ebbsfleet | Saturday 13th October 2018, 15:00
Both these teams lost 2-0 last weekend – it was the first time Solihull had conceded a goal for nearly a month after the Midlands club had won their previous four fixtures ‘to nil.’ Moors boss Tim Flowers wasn’t happy with the performance at Barnet and will be looking for an immediate response.
At home, the Moors have been very strong this season – in seven games they have won five, drawn one and lost one, conceding just three goals. Danny Wright looks to have been a great signing from Cheltenham; he’s netted six goals, with four coming in his last five, and all but one of those goals have come at Damson Park.
Ebbsfleet made a solid start to the campaign, but have won just once since the beginning of September, a a run of eight matches – five of which have ended in defeat.
To be fair, Ebbsfleet’s best form has come on the road, where they have picked up four of their five victories. But again, three off those came in the opening seven fixtures when they were in decent form.
The 5/4 with William Hill for a home victory looks a solid price.
Harrogate v Dover | Saturday 13th October 2018, 15:00
Harrogate have been the biggest surprise for me so far. They sit third, just one point behind league leaders Salford. They’ve been playing some great attacking football and are the league’s joint-top scorers with 30 goals in their opening 15 games.
The goals have been coming from all over the pitch too. Harrogate have already had three players accumulate five or more goals to their name, including defender Callum Howe.
Dover sacked Chris Kinnear last week after a poor start to the season. The Dover chairman was quick to find a replacement and appointed Andy Hessenthaler from Eastleigh early his week. The ex-Gillingham player is going to have his work cut out here having inherited quite a poor squad, who are out of form and look low on confidence.
Dover have conceded more goals than any other team in the league at an average of just over two per-game. At 4/7 the home side are too short to be putting up, but I have found a long shot I like the look of.
I expect this to be quite a one-sided game in favour of the hosts and so I’m hoping this will lead to the Yorkshire-based club winning plenty of corners and free-kicks in attacking areas.
I mentioned earlier about defender Howe already netting five this season, all of which have come via corners, with Joe Leesley providing consistently accurate and dangerous deliveries. Leesley is already in double figures for assists – it’s obviously an area that Simon Weaver pays a lot of attention too.
On top of this, Dover have really struggled to defend balls in the box played in the air. Of the 32 goals they have conceded so far, 10 have come from headed goals, including two last time out against Salford, one coming from a corner.
The bookies have obviously caught on to Howe’s goalscoring prowess and he looks too short in the goalscorer markets. His defensive partner Liam Kitching has caught my eye though at a nice price though.
The young defender, on-loan from Leeds has netted twice already, both goals coming from headers from corners. Including his spell with the club last season, he now has five goals in just over 30 games, so he’s averaging about one in six.
Hopefully Dover will be paying extra attention to Howe allowing Kitching a bit of extra space. You can get 20/1 for Kitching to open the scoring here with Bet365, which I like the look of.
I will be going each-way with the company offering a generous 1/3 the odds for a place.
Halifax v Chesterfield | Saturday 13th October 2018, 17:15 | BT Sport
Last up is the game live on BT Sport between two sides who had great starts to the season, but are really struggling at the moment. Halifax haven’t won any of their last eight, although five have ended all-square. Opponents Chesterfield are winless in 12, eight of those ending in defeat.
Chesterfield’s main problem has been finding the back of the net. They have scored just three times in their last 10 matches and haven’t won away from home since the opening day.
In Halifax’s run of eight without a win, only three of those fixtures came at home, and all three of those were tough games against sides currently in the top seven. Before that they had won their four previous home games, conceding just once.
I’m not sure why the bookies have Chesterfield favourites here, but as they do you can get a great price on Halifax draw no bet. Marathon have it at 13/10, which looks too big to me.
I’ve also found a first goalscorer bet I like in this game.
Halifax frontman Dayle Southwell has been priced up at 7/1 with various bookies and that looks on the big side. The former Wycombe striker has netted four times this season so far and will be on penalties.
There are three Chesterfield players ahead of him in the betting, one is out on-loan, one has started just six games and is yet to score and the other is Marc Antoine Fortune who has netted four times for Chesterfield, but has been in-and-out of the starting line-up, and completed 90 minutes just three times all season.
TOPICS Football League Tips Non-League TipsBest Bets
Solihull Moors v Ebbsfleet – Solihull Moors to win (5/4 William Hill)
Harrogate v Dover – Liam Kitching to score first (20/1 each-way Bet365)
Halifax v Chesterfield – Halifax draw no bet (13/10 Marathon)
Halifax v Chesterfield – Dayle Southwell to score first (7/1 Ladbrokes)
