CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from Ligue 1’s early Sunday showdown between Monaco and Reims.
Monaco vs Reims | Sunday 23rd August 2020, 12:00 | BT Sport
Ligue 1 has kicked-off and we see Reims travel down to the south-east of France to take on a Monaco side who will be hoping they can start the season as they mean to go on.
The coronavirus had serious implications on Ligue 1 as their season was ended prematurely, meaning that Monaco finished ninth in the table – they were just one point adrift off of the top-six before the season ground to a halt.
Monaco have not played on home soil since February and so excitement is rife at the knowledge they will be kicking off their campaign at the Stade Louis II. Interestingly, the last game they played on home turf was against Reims and that matchup resulted in a 1-1 draw
Reims know they will be in for a tough test but confidence must still be high as the curtailment of the 2019/20 season ensured that they qualified for a European competition for the first time in 58 years.
Key stats:
Monaco:
- Committed on average 11.4 fouls per game at home last season (2nd fewest).
- Received on average 11.7 fouls per game at home last season.
- Saw 2+ cards in 7/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 7/9 occasions.
- Scored in 8/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
- Conceded in 8/9 home games against top-half sides last season.
Reims:
- Committed on average 14.1 fouls per away game last season (3rd most).
- Received on average 14.9 fouls per away game last season (2nd most).
- Saw 2+ cards in 4/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
- In those games, the opposition saw 2+ cards on 1/6 occasions.
- Scored in 4/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
- Conceded in 3/6 away games against top-half sides last season.
Key facts:
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in 24 of Reims last 28 games.
- There have been under 2.5 goals scored in Monaco’s last 3 home games.
- Monaco are undefeated in their last 6 home matches against Reims in all competitions.
- In Monaco’s last 5 opening league game of the season, over 2.5 goals has landed in every single one. They have also conceded in all of those.
Analysis
My first bet is for there to be Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams To Score. This bet has landed in 4/5 of Monaco’s season-opening fixtures (80%) yet the odds would suggest it only has a 36.4% chance of landing.
I appreciate lots of factors change throughout the different seasons but it offers value when you consider that they were the second top scorers in the league last season overall. They were also one of the sides who shipped a high number too, so I feel that chances will be created.
Funnily enough, this was the final fixture of the curtailed season for Monaco and Reims and it produced a massive 35 shots in total. Considering the price for Over 2.5 Goals and the fact they’ve conceded in their last five opening games, it’s a bet I am all over.
My second pick is for Reims to score and for them to receive 2+ cards. Referee Francois Letexier handed out an average of 4.14 yellows per-game last season. In Letexier’s all-time record, only three sides have been awarded more cards per game than the away side.
Reims also committed the third most fouls on average in the league last year and so with that in mind, it’s a bet I will happily take at that price.
TOPICS European Football FootballBest Bets
Monaco vs Reims – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (7/4 William Hill)
Monaco vs Reims – Reims to score Over 0 Goals and Reims to collect Over 1 Cards (6/4 Bet365)
