LIVERPOOL host Tottenham in Wednesday’s Premier League highlight. Tom Love (@TomLove_18) shares his betting thoughts.
Liverpool vs Tottenham | Wednesday 16th December 2020, 20:00 | Amazon Prime
Second host first in the Premier League on Wednesday night in what should be a real game of attack versus defence.
You don’t need me to tell you how efficient and effective Spurs have been this season, Jose Mourinho has been happy to concede possession, contain and look to counter when opposition push players up the pitch.
Tottenham have had to set up their shape to be able to counter-attack to the best degree, leaving Harry Kane, Heung Min-Son and Stephen Bergwijn up the pitch and letting Moussa Sissoko and Pierre Hojberg drop into the defensive line.
They’re more than happy to see crosses into their box, and will welcome them against Liverpool who have less of a physical threat in the box than Palace did at the weekend. They’ll try cut off the gaps and lines for the hosts to play through them, and with that in mind, I do worry that this game will fail to live up to the billing.
Liverpool have been struggling somewhat of late too, struggling to find their cutting edge. News that Diogo Jota is out for the foreseeable future is a big blow so a side lacking potency in front of goal.
I’m surprised the goal line is set at 2.75, with unders available at odds-against, but given how I expect this game to play out from a tactical standpoint, I’ll head to the Bet Builder market and combine, Under 4 Goals and Each Team Under 4 Cards for a 20/23 shot at Bet365.
It’s likely to be 70+% possession for the Reds and I can’t see Spurs’ style changing too much even if they go a goal down as it’s their most effective way of playing. They’ll likely sit off and only put pressure on the ball in their defensive third which means less chance of cynical fouls due to little space being in behind.
Liverpool rarely collect more than three cards, they haven’t done at all this season and just 1/38 times last season. Spurs also have a 100% record for Under 4 Cards this season. Liverpool have seen Under 4 Goals in six of their last seven in the league whilst Spurs have seen unders cop in each of their last seven.
I’m also willing to have a stab at the 14/1 on offer from bet365 for No Goalscorer here. I do worry that from a spectacle perspective, Spurs could stink the place out. They’ll snap your hand off for a point and I do think they have a decent chance, it’s two sides that are up there but have failed to really convince in forward areas of late.
Backing this market instead of the 0-0 means that if the only goal(s) are own goals we also get a winner.
Best Bets
Liverpool vs Tottenham – Under 4 Goals, Each Team Under 4 Cards (20/23 Bet365)
Liverpool vs Tottenham – No Goalscorer (14/1 Bet365)
