WLB contributor Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) previews Saturday’s early kick-off as Leicester host Liverpool at the King Power.
Leicester v Liverpool | Saturday 1st September 2018, 12:30 | Sky Sports
Liverpool
Liverpool are being touted as title-challengers and it is hard to argue based on results thus far.
The Reds have won all three Premier League matches heading into the trip with Leicester and are yet to concede a goal. It is somewhat surprising then that ‘no’ in the both teams to score market is the outsider
However, a quick look at the history of Liverpool playing at the King Power may well shed some light on perhaps why.
The Foxes have scored in each of their last five home matches against Liverpool (in fact they have netted 10 – an average of two goals per game) and have started their season with their shooting boots on. Leicester have scored nine goals in their four competitive matches this season.
Liverpool are odds on favourites to pick up the three points, but at 9/20 look a little short considering The Reds have only picked up three wins in their last 10 visits to the King Power Stadium.
Leicester
Leicester have won both of their home games so far this season without conceding a goal and that carries on their form from last season where they lost only six of 19 home games in the Premier League.
Despite this and their hoodoo status over Liverpool in the past, they are a big price of 13/2 to win. That seems somewhat generous and I can see punters backing that result come the weekend – especially as Liverpool lost five times on the road last season yet were unbeaten at Anfield.
The angle
Another interesting point to this match is the over/under market. Four of the last five matches between these sides have ended with three or more goals scored in them and the one that didn’t saw two goals fly in.
It is clear then, that this is likely to be a high scoring encounter based on those past results and the market reflects that. Over 2.5 goals is available at 17/25 with the under 2.5 bracket a bigger price of 69/50.
Some shrewd backers may well go against this market considering Liverpool have been involved in back-to-back under 2.5 results with both Crystal Palace and Brighton limiting their impressive attack to ‘just’ three goals scored across two games.
Tactically, Claude Puel has an interesting choice here. Does he sit back and therefore cut off the space for Liverpool’s pacy attacking players to get in behind their defence? Or does he trust his side to play on the front foot with the risk of being caught on the counter attack which we all know Liverpool deploy so well?
With Jamie Vardy suspended (who has scored seven in his last six games against Liverpool) I like the look of the under 2.5 goal market here.
TOPICS Football Premier League TipsBest Bets
Leicester v Liverpool – Under 2.5 Goals (69/50 Marathon)
