THIS year’s UK General Election looks closer than ever before. We got PR industry man Dan White (@danwhitepr) to point out the best bets.
General Election | 7th May 2015
In little over a fortnight the UK will be able to relax and people will no longer simply be called “Johnny” during debates and a Government will reign once again. Unlike most previous General Elections though, it is still up in the air as to who will be Prime Minister and form the Government.
The polls so far have been neck and neck. Labour and the Conservative Party both look likely to win between 270 and 280 seats – both well below the 326 required to form a Government.
The Tories will possibly have marginally more but this does not necessarily put them in a strong position. Who will work with the Tory Party to form a Government? UKIP will only have four MPs maximum, the DUP won’t have enough either.
The Liberal Democrats have suffered massively in the polls and are currently polling at around a third of what they achieved in 2010. This would result in them having less than 20 seats of their current 56 seats. This would also be bad news for David Cameron as this would still leave a Con-Lib coalition with less than 300 seats in total.
Despite being mocked in the national media throughout his tenure and being perceived negatively Ed Miliband’s popularity has increased dramatically – even usurping Cameron in recent days according to the polls.
It might not be popular with some, but the SNP has said they would work with Labour – Labour, if forced will work with the SNP. That would mean they have enough numbers to make up a Government.
Miliband could also choose to work with other left leaning parties, and this could also include the Liberal Democrats who might want to turn their backs on the Tories after a difficult five years.
Looking at the endless possibilities and different coalition Governments Ed Miliband has around about an 80-85 per cent chance of becoming Prime Minister. He looks an absolute steal at around even money to be the next Prime Minister.
Nick Clegg could find it difficult to hang on to his seat in Sheffield Hallam with Labour targeting it as a key seat for them. I do think he will hang on to his seat with some Conservative voters being tactical and keeping him in the constituency but his position as leader could become difficult.
If the SNP do begin to work with Labour then Clegg could find himself out on a limb as leader, and Labour could even say they will work with the Liberal Democrats, but without him.
Tim Farron is being touted as the favourite to replace him, but Norman Lamb has also been mentioned and I think he looks a decent price to be the next Liberal Democrat leader. He is well liked by the members of the Party and Tim Farron has recently been criticised by some of the leadership.
The SNP has been making key headway ever since the vote on independence and Danny Alexander could be a major casualty. However, I am inclined to believe he has a chance to stay as an MP.
The polls have been focusing on party of choice and not individuals and at 7/1 I think he’s worth a small wager to stay as an MP.
For similar reasons I’d also be keeping an eye on Jim Murphy, the Scottish Labour Leader to keep his seat in East Renfrewshire and Douglas Alexander in Paisley and Renfrewshire South who are available at around even money and 2/1 to keep their seats.
Best Bets
General Election 2015 – Ed Miliband Prime Minister after General Election (5/6 Betway)
General Election 2015 – Norman Lamb to be the next Liberal Democrat leader (7/1 William Hill)
General Election 2015 – Danny Alexander (Liberal Democrat) to win Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey seat (7/1 Ladbrokes)
General Election 2015 – Jim Murphy (Labour) to win Renfrewshire East (Evens William Hill)
General Election 2015 – Douglas Alexander to win Paisley and Renfrewshire South (11/4 Coral)
Your View?
Are you having a bet on the General Election? Do you agree with Dan’s thoughts.
Let us know in the comments box below.
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