ALEX JONES (@AlexJ0nes9) analyses the odds as Fulham take on West Brom in the Premier League on Monday evening.
Fulham vs West Brom | Monday 2nd November 2020, 17:30 | Sky Sports Box Office
Monday’s Premier League action begins with two of the three promoted sides meeting at Craven Cottage, as Fulham and West Brom both try and get their first wins of the season. Both sides are yet to show they will have enough to avoid a relegation battle and that could see this be a very cagey and drab affair.
Fulham were defeated by Crystal Palace last time out whereas West Brom got a deserved point on the road at Brighton. These two sides sit top of the xG against table and make up two of the bottom three for xG generated
So, with this pointing to two weak defences and two blunt attacking teams, it’s difficult to decipher which way this one is going to sway.
Both sides have looked quite blunt in the attacking third, with Fulham only scoring five and West Brom six, with both sides conceding a whopping 14 goals already. 50% of West Brom’s goals came in a singular game, too, when they hosted Chelsea.
This points me to my first bet where I’m expecting both sides to be evenly matched which could see a draw played out. Despite both managers needing the victory, a draw wouldn’t be the end of the world considering at this stage they need to start getting points on the board.
Head-to -head history points to stalemate
I’m expecting a draw but to bump the price up let’s add Under 2.5 Goals too, which gives us a 3/1 (Bet365) bet. For this to land, we’d need to see a 0-0 or 1-1. This bet has landed in six of the last eight head-to-heads dating back to 2011.
Considering we are getting 3/1 on a bet that has landed 75% of the time in the last eight games makes this seem a very generous.
Fulham are undefeated in their last nine encounters with The Baggies, too, but backing the hosts to win here isn’t for me so I’d rather play the draw at a much bigger price. Four of these six draws finished 1-1, with three of these occurring at Craven Cottage.
In addition to this, West Brom have drawn their last two with fewer than three goals being scored in both, with Fulham overseeing a 1-1 draw two weeks ago against Sheffield United.
I’m very keen on this bet as it was a much bigger price than I was expecting. The bookies have the 1-1 scoreline as the likeliest scenario, and I can’t argue with that.
The 1-1 is available at 6/1 with Bet365 best price. That is backable, in my opinion, but after diving into the stats I noticed West Brom have been behind at half-time in three of their six matches so far this campaign and I’d expect Fulham to take the initiative being the home team.
Slaven Bilic has tended to set his men up relatively deep so far this campaign and their deserved leveller at Brighton last weekend came late on thanks to Karlan Grant’s strike. So I can see this game panning out similarly to last week at Brighton where the home team take the game to The Baggies but they back fighting in the second half and maybe snatch something.
I’m going for a longshot as my second selection with Fulham/Draw (16/1 BetVictor) in the half-time/full-time market. I do fancy this finishing all square as aforementioned but to eke out that extra bit of value instead of backing the 1-1 I’ll take a stab in this market at a lovely 16/1.
TOPICS Premier League TipsBest Bets
Fulham vs West Brom (Draw and Under 2.5 Goals 3/1 Bet365)
Fulham vs West Brom – Fulham/Draw (16/1 BetVictor)
