TWO winners out of three for Mark Stinchcombe on Monday (@markstinchcombe), he’s back with more best bets here.
Ana Ivanovic v Elina Svitolina | Tuesday 13:00
2008 French Open champion Ana Ivanovic comes into this quarter final having dropped a set in three of her four victories.
Opponent Elina Svitolina has had an excellent clay court season winning an impressive 15 of her 18 matches. She was the winner in Marrakech and finalist in Bogota, although both of those tournaments are WTA 250 events. And as much as her 83% win ratio is impressive, in all of them she was favourite to win which shows the level of opponents.
Two of those defeats were in the 2nd rounds of Rome and Madrid, including a 6-3 6-4 defeat to Ivanovic in Spain. In all they have played each other six times over their careers, spanning the last three years, with Ivanovic coming out on top on every occasion, dropping just one set.
I don’t expect that result to be different on Tuesday, with 4/9 Ana hitting through Svitolina, as long as she doesn’t let the unforced errors get on top of her.
So you’re backing 2-0 right? We could do but with Ana having played three set matches in six of her nine clay court matches and at only 6/5, it’s a risky play compared to the 3.5 game handicap.
Ana beats Elina on average by almost six games a match and has won by 4+ games in five of those six meetings. At 10/11 it’s much better bet in case Ana drops a set. They met here last year in the 2nd round with Ivanovic triumphing 7-5 6-2 and more of the same should be in-store tomorrow.
Kei Nishikori v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | Tuesday 14:30
Kei Nishikori has had a very good clay court season winning 13 of his 15 matches and only suffering defeats to Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray, and should come into this match the fresher of the two having received a bye in the 3rd round following Benjamin Becker’s withdrawal.
Tsonga impressively defeated Tomas Berdych in four in the last round although the Czech wasn’t at his best. Nishikori leads the head-to-head 5-1 although that doesn’t tell the whole story. Kei has dropped a set in every single victory and with the French crowd behind the flamboyant Jo-Willy, I fancy him to have enough to take another one.
For those after a bigger price, take SkyBet’s 9/1 that Kei loses the 1st set then wins the next three (LWWW). Jo has won the opener in all but one of their six meetings.
Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer | Tuesday 14:30
The all Swiss quarter final features two countrymen who know each other very well. They’ve faced each other 20 times over the last 10 years, with Federer coming out on top a staggering 18 times.
They played each other last month in similar conditions in Rome with Roger comfortably winning 6-4 6-2 despite Stan racing into a 3-0 lead. His ‘slump’ from that position may be understandable having played an intense match the day before when smashing his way through Rafael Nadal.
They’ve faced each other twice here before in 2010 and 2011 with Federer winning both 3-0. However, as alluded to in my outright preview, understandably Roger’s level has dipped with age and Stan is now of course a Grand Slam champion with victory in Australia last year.
I like Federer to win again but with Stan taking a set as Gael Monfils did in the round before. Before Rome, in their five meetings before, Stan took a set on each occasion.
Best Bets
Ana Ivanovic v Elina Svitolina – Ivanovic -3.5 Games (10/11 Betfred)
Kei Nishikori v Jo-Wilfried Tsonga – Nishikori to win 3-1 (3/1 Sportingbet)
Stan Wawrinka v Roger Federer – Federer to win 3-1 (33/10 888 Sport)
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