TWO winners out of three on Monday at Roland Garros. Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has three more value bets lined up on Tuesday.
Petra Kivtova v Marina Erakovic | Tuesday 10:00
In my outright preview I mentioned Petra Kvitova’s poor record on slower clay courts and I think there may be a bit of value opposing her today.
I’m not suggesting 9/1 Marina Erakovic is going to cause an upset, she’s 2-4 on clay this year, but I think she has enough in her game to make the match closer than the odds suggest.
None of her four defeats have been by more than six games, as well as none of her 15 matches here. Coupled with Petra not blowing her opponents away by a seven game margin in any of her last eight matches in Paris and I think this looks good.
These two actually met here in the 2nd round last year in which Petra prevailed 6-4 6-4 (four game victory) when Erakovic was priced up as a 4/1 outsider. I don’t think there’s anything to suggest in either’s clay court ability or form since that Marina should be over twice the price.
Serena Williams v Andrea Hlavackova | Tuesday 15:00
When Serena is on her game no one in the world can live with her. And invariably in the early rounds of tournaments she tends to dispatch her opponents with relative ease.
In the 2nd round of Rome she beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 6-1 6-3, in the 1st round of Madrid Madison Brengle 6-0 6-1, in the 2nd round of Miami she defeated Monica Niculescu 6-3 6-1 and at the Australian Open Alison Van Uytvanck was the victim of a 6-0 6-4 opening round defeat.
Over the last couple of years here it’s been no different with victories of 6-2 6-1 v Alize Lim and 6-0 6-1 v Anna Tatishvili. These two actually met in the 4th round of the US Open in 2012 where Serena destroyed 190th ranked Hlavakova 6-0 6-0 and I haven’t seen anything in her recent results against power players that she can prevent a similar defeat.
Last year at Wimbledon Kvitova beat her 6-3 6-0 and in Tianjin, China Sorana Cirstea won 6-3 6-0. The handicap is 7.5 and that looks generous.
Kristina Mladenovic v Eugenie Bouchard | Tuesday 15:30
Another point made in the outright preview was the poor form of Eugenie Bouchard. Semi-finalist here last year, she’s had a torrid 2015 since the Australian Open losing eight of her 11 matches and winning just one of her four clay court contests. Confidence looks a real issue.
In her last match in Rome against a below par Carla Suarez-Navarro, three times Genie failed to serve the match out then in the final set tie-breaker, despite saving four match-points and reaching match-point herself, she proceeded to double-fault. The next point she double-faulted again before Suarez-Navarro finally took advantage to take the match. Overall Genie hit 59 unforced errors as her problems continue to mount.
Kristina Mladenovic comes into Roland Garros in good clay court form. Finalist in Strasbourg last week, she also made the semi’s of Marrakech including beating Garbine Muguruza. With victory over Li Na in the 1st round here last year, she has every chance of causing an upset again.
Best Bets
Petra Kvitova v Marina Erakovic – Erakovic +6.5 Games (4/5 Bet365)
Serena Williams v Andrea Hlavackova – Williams -7.5 Games (20/21 Betfair)
Kristina Mladenovic v Eugenie Bouchard – Mladenovic to win (13/8 Paddy Power)
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