Football League: Select a Bank Holiday goal glut at the City Ground

FOOTBALL LEAGUE expert Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has nailed four winers from his last five selections. Here he shares his verdict on Bank Holiday Monday’s action.

Nottingham Forest v Barnsley | Monday 15:00

Nottingham Forest

• Nottingham Forest have W0-D1-L4 in their last 5 games, conceding 2+ goals in 4/5 games.
• Nottingham Forest have W5-D3-L3 at home this season, scoring in 10/11 but failing to keep a clean sheet yet.
• Nottingham Forest have seen 11/11 home games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 7/11 (64%) home games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 10/11 (91%) bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Nottingham Forest have seen 23/24 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 17/24 (71%) league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 18/24 (75%) bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Nottingham Forest have scored in 19/24 (79%) of league games and kept only 1/24 clean sheet – only Rotherham (52) have conceded more goals (44).
• Nottingham Forest have scored 2+ goals in 5/11 (45%) at home but also conceded 2+ goals in 5/11 (45%) at home.
• Nottingham Forest’s matches are averaging 3.38 goals per-game, and 3.55 goals per-game at home this season.
• Nottingham Forest’s total expected goals across their 24 matches sits at 2.95 per-game – only three clubs are facing more shots at home.
• Nottingham Forest have centre-back Matt Mills suspended.
• Nottingham Forest’s last match with Barnsley in November ended in a 5-2 win.

Barnsley

• Barnsley have W4-D1-L1 in their last 6 games, scoring 2+ goals in 6/7 games.
• Barnsley have W5-D1-L5 away this season, scoring in 8/11 (73%) and keeping 4/11 (36%) clean sheets on their travels.
• Barnsley have seen 10/11 away games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 7/11 (64%) away games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 5/11 (45%) bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Barnsley have seen 22/24 league games feature Over 1.5 Goals, 15/24 (63%) league games produce Over 2.5 Goals and 13/24 (54%) bank for Both Teams To Score backers.
• Barnsley have scored in 19/24 (79%) of league games and kept 8/24 (33%) clean sheets but still average 1.54 goals per-game conceded.
• Barnsley have scored 2+ goals in 15/24 (63%) of games, including in 6/11 (55%) away but also conceded 2+ goals in 13/24 (54%) games – 6/11 (55%) of which came away.
• Barnsley’s matches are averaging 3.29 goals per-game, and 3.18 goals per-game away this season.
• Barnsley’s total expected goals across their 24 matches sits at 2.95 per-game – only three clubs are averaging more shots this season but only two sides are facing more shots with 28.79 in total per-game.
• Barnsley’s last match with Nottingham Forest in November ended in a 2-5 loss.
• Barnsley have centre-back Marc Roberts suspended but winger Adam Hammill returns from suspension.

Back Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score at evens with Coral.

Oldham v Port Vale | Monday 15:00

Oldham

• Oldham have W3-D9-L11 this season, including W1-D4-L5 at home.
• Oldham have scored only 12 goals in 23 games, including only 4 in 10 at home.
• Oldham have failed to score in 15/23 (65%) of games, including 8/10 (80%) at home.
• Oldham have kept 7/23 (30%) clean sheets, including 5/10 (50%) at home.
• Oldham have seen Under 1.5 Goals in 9/23 (39%) of games, Under 2.5 Goals in 19/23 (83%) of games and Both Teams To Score in just 6/23 (26%).
• Oldham have seen Under 1.5 Goals in 4/10 (40%) of games at home, Under 2.5 Goals in 9/10 (90%) of home games and Both Teams To Score in just 1/10 (10%) at home.
• Oldham have seen 0-0 scores in 5/23 (22%) games, including 4/10 (40%) at home. Oldham have failed to score in 7 of their last 9 matches.
• Oldham have averaged just 10.36 shots per-game – the fourth fewest in the league – and only 3.82 shots on-target per-game – the third fewest.
• Oldham’s games are averaging just 1.69 goals per-game and only 1.50 goals per-game at home.
• Oldham have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 5/6 home games against Port Vale.

Port Vale

• Port Vale have W8-D6-L10 this season, including W1-D3-L7 away.
• Port Vale have scored 27 goals in 24 games, including only 6 in 11 away.
• Port Vale have failed to score in 8/24 (33%) games, including 6/11 (55%) away.
• Port Vale have kept 6/24 (25%) clean sheets, including 3/11 (27%) away.
• Port Vale have seen Under 1.5 Goals in 7/24 (29%) of games, Under 2.5 Goals in 11/24 (46%) of games and Both Teams To Score in just 12/24 (50%).
• Port Vale have seen Under 1.5 Goals in 4/11 (36%) of away games, Under 2.5 Goals in 5/11 (45%) of away games and Both Teams To Score in just 4/11 (36%) away.
• Port Vale have seen 0-0 scores in 2/24 (8%) games, including 2/11 (18%) away.
• Port Vale have failed to score in each of their last 3 away games.
• Port Vale have averaged a league-low 7.87 shots per-game this season and a league-low 3.22 shots on-target per-game.
• Port Vale have seen Under 2.5 Goals in 5/6 away games against Oldham.

Back Under 2.5 Goals at 4/5 with Marathon.

Colchester v Cheltenham | Monday 15:00

Colchester

• Colchester have W9-D6-L8 this season, including W5-D2-L3 at home.
• Colchester have W5-D1-L0 since switching to 3-5-2, a run that started with a 3-0 win at Cheltenham.
• Colchester have kept 4/6 clean sheets in their 3-5-2 formation.
• Colchester have scored 2+ goals in 7/10 home games this season.
• Only 4 League Two clubs are averaging fewer shots conceded this season.
• Only Portsmouth (65.75%) are returning a better shots on-target ratio return than Colchester this season (56.76%).

Cheltenham

• Cheltenham W4-D9-L10 this season, including W2-D4-L4 away.
• Cheltenham have W1-D0-L6 in their last 7 games – their win came when turning around a 1-0 deficit to 10-man Morecambe.
• Cheltenham have W1-D4-L7 against top-half teams.
• Cheltenham boss Gary Johnson has said publicly he needs to reshape his squad in January and three new signings could make their debut.
• Cheltenham are averaging 1.52 goals per-game against and have kept only 3/23 (13%) clean sheets – only 1 shutout arriving away.
• Only 5 League Two clubs are averaging fewer shots this season and only 3 are facing more shots on-target.
• Only Crawley (2.75) are averaging fewer shots on-target on their travels than Cheltenham (3.30).

Back Colchester to win at 23/20 (Bet365).

Best Bets

Nottingham Forest v Barnsley – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (1/1 Coral)

Oldham v Port Vale – Under 2.5 Goals (4/5 Marathon)

Colchester v Cheltenham – Colchester to win (23/20 Bet365)

TOPICS Football League Tips