Football League: Pompey at the Pirelli equals Good Friday goals

FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Good Friday’s EFL action.

Birmingham v Derby | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00 | Sky Sports

Birmingham have lost only 5/21 at St Andrew’s this season, whilst under Garry Monk’s watch the Blues have only been beaten in 6/27 at home (W11-D10-L6).
Birmingham have beaten Leeds and held Sheffield United in their most recent two outings on home soil and boast a W4-D3-L3 return against top-half teams this term.
Birmingham have conceded the fifth-fewest shots from inside the penalty area in the Championship this season and are rated mid-table across a range of key performance data metrics.
Derby have won just 6/20 Championship games since December’s international break and have W0-D3-L4 in their 7 away days in 2019, failing to score in 5/7 away.
Derby have won only 6/20 away Championship outings under Frank Lampard, recording only two clean sheets. The Rams have W2-D4-L6 at sides in 11th and below.
Derby are ranked no higher than 15th in any of the major performance data metrics and have generated the fifth-lowest xG figure on the road. Just five sides average fewer shots from inside the penalty area than the Rams.

Back Birmingham +0 on the Asian Handicap at 9/10 (Unibet).

Burton v Portsmouth | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00 | Sky Sports

Only Luton can better Burton’s Expected Goals (xG) ratio over the last 8 games in League One with the Brewers boasting a 64% share during their W5-D2-L1 run (scoring 18 goals).
Burton have scored 32 goals – at an average of 1.52 per-game – at home. The Brewers have generated 1.40 xG at the Pirelli, scoring in 17/21 and notching in all seven meetings with the top-10 in the division here.
Burton have fired in the fourth-most shots from inside the penalty area this season and just five sides have returned a larger xG from open play figure.
Burton have seen 24/42 (57%) matches feature Both Teams To Score, including 12/21 (57%) at the Pirelli. Four of their five showdowns with the top-seven paid out for BTTS backers.
Portsmouth have W6-D0-L1 – scoring 20 goals – to put themselves back into the League One automatic promotion mix.
Portsmouth have W21-D7-L3 when excluding the top-six, scoring in all bar three of 31 fixtures and netting at least twice on 21 occasions.
Portsmouth’s away days have averaged 3.10 goals per-game with 16/21 (76%) producing profitable Both Teams To Score selections. Pompey have kept just four clean sheets away and scored in all bar two of their 21 road trips.
Portsmouth have generated the second-best xG figure in League One and third-highest xG from open play return. Pompey also average the third-most shots from inside the box.

Back Both Teams To Score at 5/6 (Sportingbet).

Cheltenham v Oldham | Friday 19th April 2019, 15:00

Cheltenham have W12-D10-L13 under the stewardship of Mike Duff although the Robins have excelled at Whaddon Road in this sample, picking up W9-D6-L3 under Duff.
Cheltenham have averaged 1.83 points per-game on home soil under Duff – the seventh best record in that time. Since November, the Robins have W9-D5-L0 at home.
Cheltenham have W8-D2-L1 when welcoming clubs in 12th and below – scoring at least twice in 7/10, as well as W13-D4-L5 when including away days at the same opposition.
Cheltenham boast a 63% Expected Goals (xG) ratio from their last 8 encounters (W3-D3-L2) – the third-best in League Two – and restricted Lincoln to 0.36 xG at Sincil Bank last week.
Only 7 clubs have generated a better xG average on home soil this season with Cheltenham producing an xG figure over 2.00 in half of their last 10 at Whaddon Road.
Oldham have W3-D1-L0 since Paul Scholes resigned despite conceding 59 shots in games against Swindon, Colchester, Tranmere and Grimsby.
Oldham have won only 6/20 away games this season and the Latics have conceded 1.52 xG per-game on average on the road. Only four clubs have landed fewer on-target shots away.
Just 4 League Two sides have generated a lower xG from open play figure than Oldham’s 0.70 average and only 4 teams have fired in fewer shots from inside the box this season.
Oldham have W12-D4-L4 against teams below them this season but are too short around 9/5 for a tricky trip on Good Friday.

Best Bets

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Birmingham v Derby – Birmingham +0 Asian Handicap (9/10 Unibet)

Burton v Portsmouth – Both Teams To Score (5/6 Sportingbet)

Cheltenham v Oldham – Cheltenham +0 Asian Handicap (9/10 BetVictor)