Football League: Goals on the agenda in League One mega-match

FOOTBALL LEAGUE analyst Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) returns with his best bets from Saturday’s EFL action.

Swansea v Hull | Saturday 27th April 2019, 15:00

• Swansea are 5 points off the play-off positions with 3 games to play, one of which is against sixth-placed Derby. The Welsh side are still in the running for a top-six finish.
• Swansea have W5-D0-L1 in their last 6 games and have W8-D2-L1 in their last 11 outings at their Liberty Stadium home.
• Swansea are top of the Expected Goals (xG) ratio rankings over the last 8 games in the Championship and have risen to top-eight berths when viewing season-long Shots In The Box, xG and xG from open play figures.
• Swansea have scored 13 goals in their last 4 home outings and notched at least 3 goals in 5 of their last 7 at the Liberty Stadium.
• Swansea have W11-D3-L2 when welcoming teams outside of the top-six, scoring 2+ in 12/16 games at the Liberty Stadium.
• Hull’s feint play-off aspirations have been ended by 3 successive defeats against Middlesbrough, West Brom and Sheffield United.
• Hull have W1-D1-L7 in away Championship games in 2019, conceding 2+ goals in 7/9, failing to score in 4/9 and securing their only success at rock-bottom Ipswich.
• Hull have lost 12/22 on the road across the whole campaign – conceding 2+ goals in 14/22 – and returned W3-D3-L12 when excluding the bottom-four in the division.
• Hull are ranked in the bottom-half across all the major performance data metrics.

Back Swansea to win at 17/20 (Unibet).

Sunderland v Portsmouth | Saturday 27th April 2019, 15:00

• Since Boxing Day, Sunderland have W9-D11-L1 to remain in the hunt for automatic promotion but a series of stalemates have seen the Black Cats drip loosen in recent weeks.
• Sunderland have W12-D9-L1 at home but against the top-half that record reads W3-D6-L1. Twelve of Sunderland’s 20 home/away games against the top-half ended in draws.
• Sunderland have failed to score in 1/43 League One game since arriving at this level with their 13 clean sheets leading to 30/43 (70%) winning Both Teams To Score bets.
• Sunderland have only shutout 6/22 visitors to the Stadium of Light, meaning BTTS has paid out in 16/22 (73%) home fixtures.
• Sunderland have seen 18/24 tussles against teams in 13th and above feature BTTS, as have 15/16 home games against teams from 1st to 18th in the league standings.
• Portsmouth have W8-D0-L1 in their last 9 games, scoring 2+ in each win, to move within striking distance of automatic promotion.
• Pompey boast the division’s best road record (W13-D5-L4) and have scored a league-best 40 goals away, failing to score in just 2/22. However, their tally of 4 away clean sheets has seen BTTS land in 17/22 (77%) away days.
• Portsmouth have seen 18 of their last 23 League One matches pay-out for BTTS backers, as well as in 8/10 trips to the top-half this season.

Back Both Teams To Score at 5/6 (Sportingbet).

Walsall v Peterborough | Saturday 27th April 2019, 15:00

• Walsall have W7-D7-L23 since mid-September and come into this weekend having lost 14/19 League One matches in 2019 to sit 4 points from safety.
• Walsall have W6-D5-L11 at home this season, returning W3-D3-L9 when entertaining teams in 16th and above – the Saddlers conceded 2+ in 9/15 of those matches.
• Walsall have W0-D4-L9 against the top-seven in League One, conceding 2+ goals in 10/13.
• Walsall have W4-D4-L11 at home since mid-September and only 3 sides have returned a worse Expected Goals (xG) ratio as hosts.
• Peterborough have W3-D2-L0 across their last 5 games and remain only 3 points shy of the top-six with a game in-hand.
• Peterborough have W10-D5-L6 on their travels this season and managed W9-D4-L3 when travelling to teams outside of the top-six. Only 3 sides have scored more away goals.
• Peterborough rank eighth in the League One xG away rankings, generating the fourth-highest xG figure on the road.

Back Peterborough draw no bet at 5/6 (Marathon).

Best Bets

Swansea v Hull – Swansea to win (17/20 Unibet)

Sunderland v Portsmouth – Both Teams To Score (5/6 Sportingbet)

Walsall v Peterborough – Peterborough draw no bet (5/6 Marathon)

TOPICS Football League Tips