MARK O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) brings the European NAP to Serie A for the first time this season on Sunday as Hellas Verona entertain Torino in the early kick-off.
Hellas Verona v Torino | Sunday 11.30 | BT Sport Europe
Here’s a fact – in 2014/15, Serie A was the second-highest scoring major European league, just behind the Bundesliga. The 2.69 goals-per-game average in Italy was more than La Liga’s 2.66 and a fair stride ahead of the Premier League’s measly 2.57.
Here’s another fact – Both Teams To Score bets won more often in Serie A than any other major European league. It’s true. The BTTS selection proved profitable in 56% of Italian top tier fixtures compared to 49% in England and Germany and 47% in Spain.
I’ve told you before and I’ll tell you again – Serie A is NOT boring and Serie A is the place to be for value goals-based bets. And I reckon I’ve found one that fits the bill this weekend too…
Following promotion to Serie A in 2013, Verona have maintained their status in the top division of Italian football relatively comfortably. But only Napoli and relegated Cagliari saw more goals in their games last season, with Verona’s concession of 65 goals making their defence the leakiest of the teams that weren’t relegated.
Hellas managed just seven clean sheets all season and saw Both Teams To Score ticked correctly off the coupon on 25 occasions. In fact, 23 of Verona’s matches enjoyed more than two goals and 15 also broke the Over 3.5 Goals mark.
Since their return to Serie A, the Gialloblu have seen 25/39 (64%) of Serie A contests at their Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi home bank for BTTS backers with a whopping 14/20 (70%) successful selections since the start of last season alone. During that time, Andrea Mandorlini’s men have netted in all bar three outings but also managed a below-par three shutouts.
A solid 1-1 draw in their season opener with highly-fancied Roma was followed up by a disappointing 2-0 defeat at Genoa but Hellas did hit the bar in that defeat. Emil Hallfredsson is struggling for fitness but last season’s joint top Serie A goalscorer Luca Toni remains a real threat and I reckon they can breach this Torino defence.
The visitors have won their first two top-flight games of a season for the first time since 1993/94 and are reaping the rewards of an intelligent transfer window. And Giampiero Ventura’s charges have also proven profitable for goal-hungry punters during the past 12 months as well as further back.
The Bulls have only failed to notch in five of their past 20 Serie A road trips since the start of 2014/15 but like their hosts, Torino have kept a paltry four clean sheets across the same spell. It’s no surprise then to learn that 13/20 (65%) of those matches rewarded Both Teams To Score investors. Indeed, both their opening two wins against Fiorentina and Frosinone have followed a similar pattern.
Winning BTTS bets are nothing new under Ventura’s watch. Since the Granata appointed the veteran head coach, the guests have recorded a hunky 36/58 (62%) Both Teams To Score winners on their travels with only 11 clean sheets and 16 matches where they’ve failed to net at all.
So if we put the two sides respective 20 game records at home and away together and find the average, we should be expecting a 67.5% chance of Both Teams To Score banking on Sunday. In betting terms, that percentage probability translates to odds shorter than a 1/2 shot.
888 Sport are allowing us to back the BTTS bet at 9/11 – that price implies a 55% chance of winning, giving us a huge value European NAP this weekend.
Best Bets
Hellas Verona v Torino – Both Teams To Score (9/11 888 Sport)
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