European Best Bets: Old Lady to show Atalanta who’s boss

CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from the continental action on Saturday.

Real Valladolid vs Barcelona | Saturday 11^th July 2020, 18:30 | La Liga TV

Two teams, two very different motivations.

Valladolid are pretty much guaranteed, barring any astounding results in the last few games, to be a La Liga side next season. Seven point separates them and the drop zone with just nine points left to play for.

Sergio Soriano’s men have won just two of eight games since the restart and both of those wins came against sides in the bottom four of the table. They’ve failed to claim three points against any side in the top half home or away and they welcome a Barcelona side who are desperate to add to their points tally.

For Barca, only a win will do in the final few games of the season. At the time of writing, Real Madrid are a point ahead of Quique Setién’s side with a game in hand – which is being played on Friday night against Alaves.

Any slip-up from Los Blancos and Barca need to be in a position in which they can capitalise. The statistics would suggest that Barca are assured of winning all three points with relative ease. Valladolid have suffered more defeats on home soil by Barcelona than any other La Liga outfit and have conceded on average 2.8 goals per game to the Blaugrana.

Key stats

Real Valladolid:

• Commit on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 14.8 fouls per game when playing at home (third most).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 5/9 home games against sides in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 9/9 occasions.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 4/5 home games against sides currently in the top six.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 5/5 occasions.
• Have scored in 5/9 home games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have conceded in 7/9 home games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have scored in just 2/5 home games against sides currently in the top six.
• Have conceded in 4/5 home games against sides currently in the top six.

Barcelona:

• Commit on average 11.2 fouls per game.
• Receive on average 14.6 fouls per game (third most).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 7/8 away games against sides in the bottom half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards in 5/8 games.
• Have scored in 8/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Have conceded in 6/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.

Key facts:

• Real Valladolid have lost 11 of their last 12 league games against Barcelona, conceding 2.8 goals per game on average.
• Real Valladolid have suffered more home defeats to Barcelona than any other side in La Liga history.
• Lionel Messi has scored in his last two appearances against Valladolid.
• Valladolid have only lost at home by two clear goals against teams in the top half once this season – a 4-1 home defeat to Athletic Bilbao.

Analysis

As you’d expect from Barcelona, they’ll dominate the ball from the first whistle to the last and look to carve open a Valladolid defence trying their best to remain resolute.

With Valladolid virtually safe, Barcelona’s motivation will be much stronger and therefore I would expect them to play with a much higher intensity than the hosts.

As previously mentioned in the key facts, Barca have come out victorious in 11 of their last 12 meetings in the league and given what’s at stake, there should be a continuation of that statistic come full time.

The hosts have seen at least two cards in 4/5 home games against teams in the top six. Due to the constant bombardment from Barcelona, I expect Antonio Lahoz to be writing a couple, potentially more, of Valladolid players’ names into his book.

Barcelona to win, Barcelona to score Over 1.5 Goals and Real Valladolid Over 1.5 Cards is the bet (20/21 BetVictor).

Basel vs Young Boys | Saturday 11^th July 2020, 19:30

Third-placed Basel take on table-topping Young Boys at St. Jakob-Park on Saturday night in what promises to be an action-packed contest.

The home side have an excellent record when playing Young Boys on home turf, in fact in the last 15 matches here, Basel have been undefeated in 14 of them. They’ve conceded just 11 goals in 14 home games this season, an average of around 0.79 goals conceded.

A win for Basel here would see them go within just six points of the top two going into the final furlong of the domestic season.

Young Boys appear to be a completely different side on the road compared to when they’re playing at home. They’ve won 87% of their matches at home this season and haven’t lost once. Away from home however, they’ve won just 29% of their matches.

It makes you realise how much Young Boys rely on their home form when you consider they’ve lost as many away games as rock bottom Neuchâtel Xamax this season.

Both sides have strong motivation for a win here and this fixture more often than not delivers excitement and goals.

Key stats

Basel:

• Have seen 2+ cards in 4/6 home games against sides currently in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
• Have scored in 6/6 home games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have conceded in 4/6 home games against sides currently in the top half.

Young Boys:

• Have seen 2+ cards in 6/6 away games against sides currently in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
• Have scored in 4/6 away games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have conceded in 5/6 away games against sides in the top half.

Head-to-head:

• Both teams have seen 2+ cards in three of their last five meetings.
• Both teams have scored in three of their last five meetings.
• The away side has seen 2+ cards in four of their last five meetings.
• These sides have seen over 2.5 goals land in three of their last five meetings.
• There has been a minimum of two goals in all five of their last five meetings.

Key facts:

• Super League top scorer Jean Pierre Nsamé returns from suspension for Young Boys.
• In their last five meetings, Jean Pierre Nsamé has scored five of the eight goals scored by Young Boys.
• FC Basel have seen over 2.5 goals in their last four home matches against Young Boys.
• FC Basel are undefeated in 14 of their last 15 home matches against Young Boys.
• Young Boys have failed to win their last SEVEN away matches.
• FC Basel have scored at least TWO goals in their last THREE home matches.

Analysis

All the statistical analysis points towards a thrilling event resulting in a good result for the home side.

Young Boys are so solid at home and you’d be brave to bet against them. But on their travels this season they have been absolutely woeful – their last away victory came all the way back in November last year against lowly Sion.

The visitors do welcome back star player Jean Pierre Nsamé from suspension, he’s the league’s top scorer so far with an incredible 23 goals in 25 appearances. However, only EIGHT of those have come away from home.

Basel have scored 2+ goals in 10/14 home matches this season. Considering Basel won 3-0 in this fixture earlier on in the season, there’s value to be had on a Basel handicap and to score 2+ goals. Basel Draw No Bet (1/1 Bet365) and Basel -1 Asian Handicap (13/4 Bet365) interest me.

Juventus vs Atalanta | Saturday 11^th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

The Old Lady welcome the Orobici to the Allianz stadium on Saturday night, knowing a win will strengthen their grip on a ninth successive Scudetto.

The hosts have seen a solid return to post-lockdown football, winning their first four games back and scoring at least two in each victory. In their last match they came unstuck against an Inspired Milan side despite taking a two-goal lead. Four goals in just 18 minutes saw Juventus lose their first match since February and fail to capitalise on Lazio’s defeat to Lecce earlier on in the evening.

With just seven games to go, Juventus will be keen to get back on track and continue their march to another title on home soil – a place where they’re yet to be beaten and have won 14 of 15 games.

Atalanta have been absolutely relentless in their attempt to not only secure Champions League football for next season, but to push themselves as close as they can to the top two. They currently sit just two points from Lazio in second spot and must know that consistency is key.

No side in Serie A has a higher Expected Goals (xG) output home or away than the Nerazzurri and they have scored in every single away game they’ve played against sides in the top six.

Key stats

Juventus:

• Commit on average 12.5 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 11.3 fouls per game when playing at home (second least).
• Have seen 2+ cards in just 2/6 home games against sides currently in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
• Have scored in 6/6 home games against sides in the top half.
• Have scored 2+ goals in 5/6 games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have conceded in 4/6 home games against sides currently in the top half.

Atalanta:

• Commit on average 13.6 fouls per game when playing away.
• Receive on average 14.9 fouls per game when playing away (third most).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 4/6 away games against sides currently in the top half.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 3/4 away games against sides in the top six.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/6 occasions.
• Have scored in 6/6 away games against sides in the top half.
• Have scored in 4/4 away games against sides in the top six.
• Have conceded in 5/6 away games against sides in the top half.
• Have conceded in 3/4 away games against sides in the top six.

Key facts:

• Atalanta have lost 65 games and conceded 214 goals so far against Juventus – both more than against any other opponent in Serie A.
• Juventus are unbeaten in their last 30 league games against Atalanta (W24; D6).
• Juventus have scored at least two goals in their last nine Serie A matches at the Allianz Stadium.
• Josep Ilicic has scored four league goals against Juventus, all in Turin – three of which have come at the new Allianz Stadium.

Analysis

This one looks to be an absolute belter and as suggested, I fancy there to be a few goals here. With such strong records for both sides for scoring goals there should be a hatful of chances.

Juventus’ defeat to Milan during the week highlighted a couple of defensive insecurities and Maurizio Sarri’s side looked susceptible to quick counters and pace. They’re man-marking was also horrendous and their defensive line often gave fouls away in dangerous areas.

Atalanta have scored more goals from set-pieces than any other side and so I feel that the visitors will have an array of opportunities to get on the score sheet.

Nevertheless, you can’t ignore the quality of Juventus, there’s a reason that they have won the title for the past eight seasons on the bounce and they’re just so dominant at home. They’ve only conceded two goals on home soil in two of 15 games – the last of which coming back in early December.

Juventus don’t see too many cards at home but their opponents tend to go in the referees book on numerous occasions. So I’ve three fancies in Turin – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (5/6 SkyBet), Juventus to win and Both Teams To Score (5/2 Bet365) and Juventus Double Chance, Over 1.5 Goals, Atalanta Over 1.5 Cards (TBC).

Best Bets

Real Valladolid vs Barcelona – Barcelona to win, Barcelona to score Over 1.5 Goals and Real Valladolid Over 1.5 Cards (20/21 BetVictor)

Basel vs Young Boys – Basel Draw No Bet (1/1 Bet365)

Basel vs Young Boys – Basel -1 Asian Handicap (13/4 Bet365)

Juventus vs Atalanta – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (5/6 SkyBet)

Juventus vs Atalanta – Juventus to win and Both Teams To Score (5/2 Bet365)

Juventus vs Atalanta – Juventus Double Chance, Over 1.5 Goals, Atalanta Over 1.5 Cards (TBC)

TOPICS European Football Football