European Best Bets: Cards king in Serie A six-pointer

CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from the continental action on Wednesday.

Lecce vs Brescia | Wednesday 22^nd July 2020, 20:45

Two of the bottom-three in Serie A face-off at the Via del Mare on Wednesday night in what is a winner-takes-all event.

Lecce have lost five of their seven games since the restart and they’ve looked extremely shaky. Nevertheless, they have scored in all but one of those games but their problem lies in their back line. In the five games that they have lost, they have conceded at least twice on every occasion.

If Lecce are to stand a chance of remaining a Serie A side next season, their defence requires drastic improvement.

Brescia look all but doomed. A win here will see them go seven points adrift from safety – providing Genoa don’t pick up any points away to Sampdoria. Last time out, Diego Lopez’ side came from behind with 20 minutes to go to beat SPAL 2-1 and, as a result, relegate the league’s bottom side after a 93^rd-minute winner.

There is a small glimmer of hope for the guests, but realistically, Le Rondinelle need to win all of their remaining games if they’re to beat the drop.

Key stats

Lecce:

• Commit on average 12.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 13.5 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the bottom half of the table.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 6/7 occasions.
• Have scored in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Have scored TWO or more goals in 4/7 home games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Have conceded in 6/7 home games against sides currently in the bottom half and have conceded TWO or more goals on 4/7 occasions against sides in the bottom half.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 6/7 home games against sides in the bottom half.

Brescia:

• Commit on average 13.2 fouls per game when playing away.
• Receive on average 15.4 fouls per game when playing away (third most).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 8/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions.
• Have scored in 8/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Have scored TWO or more goals in 0/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Have conceded in 5/8 away games and have conceded TWO or more goals in 3/8 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in 3/8 away games against sides in the bottom half this season.

Key facts:

• Brescia have earned just ONE point away from home since the start of 2020.
• Brescia beat SPAL in their last league game – the only time they have won consecutive games this season was in the reverse fixtures against SPAL and Lecce.
• Lecce have conceded 36 goals this season at the Via del Mare – only two sides have ever conceded more at home after 17 games.
• Lecce have won just ONE of their last 10 league games, a win here would relegate Brescia.
• Brescia have conceded at least THREE goals in their last THREE away matches.
• Over 2.5 goals has landed in FIVE of the last SIX head-to-heads between these two.

Analysis

It’s a gargantuan game down at the bottom end of the table and is one that could be in contention for match of the evening.

It’s a cliché but this is truly a six-pointer and I expect fireworks right from the first whistle. A draw is not enough for either of these struggling sides and so I can see referee Fabio Maresca frequently blowing his whistle and writing names into his book.

In four of their last five head-to-heads there has been a minimum of five cards shown – the last meeting amassed a total of 10 cards altogether.

With neither side wanting to make any mistakes, and doing everything they can to sniff out any sign of danger, it’s likely this one will see more cards than Clintons.

I’ll be playing Each Team Over 1 Card and Over 2 Goals (13/10 Bet365) and Both Teams Over 0 Cards In Each Half (21/10 William Hill).

Parma vs Napoli | Wednesday 22^nd July 2020, 18:30 | Premier Sports

Gennaro Gattuso and his Napoli side travel to the north of Italy, as they look to re-assert themselves into the European places.

The race for a Europa League place took another twist as Milan’s victory away to Sassuolo on Tuesday night saw them leapfrog Napoli into the top-six. Napoli now have the chance to put that right as they take on a Parma side who have little to play for in this campaign.

Last time out, Gli Azzurri looked like they were going to drop points at home to Udinese. That was until the 95^th minute when Matteo Politano slammed in the winner to give Napoli all three points.

Parma have been nothing short of woeful since their return from lockdown, winning just one of their nine games – away to Genoa. They have lost six and drawn one of the others and with nothing else to really motivate them, it’s hard to see anything other than another win for the away side.

Parma have managed to score in every game since the return but unfortunately for them, they’ve conceded in every single one too. In fact, they’ve shipped 19 goals since the restart – an average of just over two per-game.

Key stats

Parma:

• Commit on average 14.6 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 12.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 4/4 home games against sides currently in the top six.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 4/4 occasions.
• Have scored in 2/4 home games against sides currently in the top six.
• Have scored 2+ in just 1/4 home games against sides in the top six.
• Have conceded in 3/4 home games against sides currently in the top six but have only conceded twice or more in one of those.
• In games at home to the top six, Over 2.5 goals has landed just once.

Napoli:

• Commit on average 11.4 fouls per game when playing away (fewest in the league).
• Receive on average 15 fouls per game when playing away (third most in the league).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 6/9 away games against sides currently in the bottom half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/9 occasions.
• Have scored in 8/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
• Have scored two or more goals in 5/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
• Have conceded in 7/9 away games against sides in the bottom half but have conceded two or more in just two of those.
• In games away to sides in the bottom half, over 2.5 goals has landed on 5/9 occasions.

Key facts:

• Parma have scored in their last NINE league games – their longest run since 2014.
• The last SEVEN meetings between these two has produced THREE wins each and a draw.
• Parma have won just ONE of their last EIGHT home games against Napoli.

Analysis

Napoli must win, anything less and they’ll lose the advantage in the fight for a European spot. The away side will also want a bit of revenge as Parma won the reverse fixture earlier on in the season at the San Paolo.

Parma have been utterly dreadful since football resumed and I can see this being more of damage limitation as Napoli have a much stronger motivation for claiming all three points.

The hosts have seen at least two cards in every single meeting against sides in the top-six this season. In Napoli’s away games against sides in the bottom half, the opposition has seen at least two cards on 7/9 occasions.

With Napoli expected to see the lion’s share of possession, combined with the likelihood of them bombarding the Parma half, expect to see referee Antonio Giua brandishing at least a couple of yellows for the home side.

In games at home to teams in the top-six this season, Parma have scored two goals just once. With motivation being a key factor here, I can’t see a scenario where Parma are scoring two goals against a Napoli side hell-bent on sealing victory.

It’s going to be one-way traffic in my opinion and so expect the side from Naples to take this fight for Europe into the final few games.

I’ll be looking to support Parma Under 2 Goals and Parma Over 1 Card (5/6 Bet365), Each Team Over 1 Card and Over 0 First-Half Cards (11/8 Bet365) and Napoli to Win, Napoli most Corners and Parma most Cards (9/2 Betfair).

Best Bets

Lecce vs Brescia – Each Team Over 1 Card and Over 2 Goals (13/10 Bet365)

Lecce vs Brescia – Both Teams Over 0 Cards In Each Half (21/10 William Hill)

Parma vs Napoli – Parma Under 2 Goals and Parma Over 1 Card (5/6 Bet365)

Parma vs Napoli – Each Team Over 1 Card and Over 0 First-Half Cards (11/8 Bet365)

Parma vs Napoli – Napoli to Win, Napoli most Corners and Parma most Cards (9/2 Betfair)

TOPICS European Football Football