European Best Bets: An action-packed evening in Serie A

CARDS specialist Chris Goodwin (@CGeorgeGamble) picks out his favourite fancies from the continental action on Wednesday.

Sassuolo vs Juventus | Wednesday 15^th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

Sassuolo have been in blistering form since the restart and they have been rewarded by finding themselves in eighth place – just six points off a Europa League qualifying position.

Roberto De Zerbi’s side have won four and drawn two of their seven games since the restart – their only loss coming away to free-scoring Atalanta. In that time they’ve taken points off of Inter Milan and Lazio, therefore they must feel as though they are more than capable of clinching a result against Maurizio Sarri’s shaky Juventus.

Despite currently sitting in their familiar position of first, the Old Lady have been far more suspect this season and have found teams scoring against them far more often than they would like.

Since the 1962/1963 season, only one team has finished as champions having conceded more than 31 goals after matchday 32. Juventus have shipped 32 goals thus far.

It’s a game that I think will epitomise end-to-end football and produce goals.

Key stats

Sassuolo:

• Commit on average 13.7 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 14.7 fouls per game when playing at home (fourth highest).
• Have seen 2+ cards in 5/7 home games against sides in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/7 occasions.
• Have scored in 7/7 home games against sides in the top half.
• Have conceded in 7/7 home games against sides in the top half.

Juventus:

• Commit on average 14.4 fouls per game when playing away.
• Receive on average 14.3 fouls per game when playing away.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 7/8 away games against sides in the top half this season.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions.
• Have scored in 8/8 away games against sides in the top half this season.
• Have conceded in 7/8 away games against sides in the top half.

Key facts:

• Juventus are the side Sassuolo have lost against more than any other side in Serie A. They’ve also conceded more goals against the Old Lady than any other team.
• Juventus have scored at least two goals in each of their last seven Serie A matches against Sassuolo.
• Sassuolo have won four league games in a row for the first time since 2016. They have never won five Serie A games in a row in their history.

Analysis

De Zerbi’s hosts have been fantastic lately and more than deserved their win against Lazio last time out. They’ve won their last four games and will hope they can make it five on the bounce for the first time in their history.

Sides in the top half who’ve played Sassuolo on their home turf have all seen at least two cards and with Juventus looking so shaky recently, the fact that they have seen at least two yellows in all but one of their games away to sides in the top half, you can expect the referee Paolo Valeri to be writing at least a couple of Juventus players into his book.

It doesn’t matter what kind of form they are in, Juventus always seem to manage to score. Cristiano Ronaldo is just one goal off of being the first ever player to score 50+ goals in the Premier League, La Liga and Serie A. He’s been excellent for Juve and despite being 35, he doesn’t appear to be showing any signs of slowing down.

I expect to see goals here and I think Juventus will notch a couple. I also think we’ll see Sassuolo on the scoresheet.

Sassuolo to score, Sassuolo 5+ corners and Juventus 2+ cards is 12/5 (Betfair), whilst Juventus Over 1 Goal and Juventus Over 1 Card is evens with Bet365. I also like the look of Juventus in the Most Booking Points market at 6/4 (SkyBet).

Udinese vs. Lazio | Wednesday 15^th July 2020, 20:45 | Premier Sports

Luca Gotti and his Udinese side welcome high-flying Lazio to the Stadio Friuli. It’s a contest that sees two sides with completely different motivations as the seasons end draws near.

Udinese are currently sitting in 15^th, six points clear of the relegation zone and will want to ensure that they don’t slip into the fight for survival. Since the restart, Udinese have won just two of the six games they’ve played with both victories coming away from home.

After Lazio, Le Zebrette face off against Juventus in their next home game then followed by relegation candidates Lecce. Their home form throughout this season has been mediocre and they now take on a Lazio side who will be chomping at the bit to turn their form around.

Lazio had been considered as the most likely outfit to challenge Juventus, largely thanks to the goalscoring exploits of Ciro Immobile. They’ve been overtaken by Inter and have had an awful few games. Le Aquile have lost just six times this season, which doesn’t sound bad at all considering they’ve played 32 games. However, three of those losses have come in their last three games.

Key stats

Udinese:

• Commit on average 14.8 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Receive on average 12.3 fouls per game when playing at home.
• Have seen 2+ cards in5/8 home games against teams in the top half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 7/8 occasions.
• Have scored in 5/8 home games against teams in the top half.
• Have scored in 2/4 home games against sides currently in the top six.
• Have conceded in 4/8 home games against sides in the top half.
• Have conceded in 4/4 home games against sides in the top six.
• Have conceded 2+ goals in 3/4 home games against sides in the top six.

Lazio:

• Commit on average 13.1 fouls per game when playing away.
• Receive on average 10.5 fouls per game when playing away.
• Have seen 2+ cards in 9/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.
• In those games the opposition has seen 2+ cards on 8/9 occasions.
• Have scored in 9/9 games away to sides in the bottom half.
• Have conceded in 7/9 away games against sides in the bottom half.

Key facts:

• Udinese have lost five of their last six Serie A home games against Lazio and in that time have scored only two goals.
• Only Brescia have won fewer games in the last 13 match days than Udinese.
• Lazio’s point average pre-lockdown was 2.4 per game, this has dropped to 1.0 since the restart.
• Lazio have won their last SEVEN matches against Udinese in all competitions.
• Lazio have scored at least TWO goals in their last five against Udinese in all competitions.

Analysis

I’m fully expecting Lazio to turn the tide here and get their fight for second, maybe more, back on track. They’ve been largely unlucky in some games recently and given their record against Udinese and the latter’s home form, I fancy them to blow Udinese away.

Lazio have picked up two or more cards in all of their away games against sides in the bottom half this season and I think that continues here.

Simone Inzaghi’s men average 1.1 cards in the first half and 1.8 in the second half this season and I like the odds on them to see a card in both halves as well as putting a couple of goals past this Udinese side.

Lazio to score Over 1 Goal and Lazio Over 1 Card is 11/8 (Bet365), whilst Lazio to receive a card in either half, and Lazio to sore Over 1.5 Goals is 12/5 (William Hill).

Best Bets

Sassuolo vs Juventus – Sassuolo score 1+ goal, Sassuolo 5+ Corners, Juventus 2+ Cards (12/5 Betfair)

Sassuolo vs Juventus – Juventus Over 1 Goal and Juventus Over 1 Card (1/1 Bet365)

Sassuolo vs Juventus – Juventus Most Booking Points (6/4 SkyBet)

Udinese vs Lazio – Lazio Over 1 Goal and Lazio Over 1 Card (11/8 Bet365)

Udinese vs Lazio – Lazio to receive a card in the each half and Lazio to score Over 1.5 Goals (12/5 William Hill)

TOPICS European Football Football