QUALIFYING for Euro 2020 continues on Thursday night and Tom Love (@TomLove_18) is on-hand to unearths his favourite fancies.
Moldova v Albania | Monday 14th October 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
I’ve had this fixture in my sights for a while now. Regular readers will know I love to get against Moldova when these international breaks come about and I was amazed that visitors Albania were as big as 11/10 a week ago. Unfortunately, but predictably, that price has long gone however there’s still some 4/5 available with Marathon and it’s still backable in my eyes.
Moldova have only beaten minnows San Marino and Andorra in recent years. They’ve nothing to play for and I think they could be priced up on the size of the nation instead of the quality. In their Nations League campaign they were pitted against Belarus, Luxembourg and San Marino, they won just two of those six games and they were both against San Marino.
They very rarely even trouble the net, Moldova have lost four of their last five ‘to nil’ and don’t have the requisite quality to trouble their opposition.
Albania have been cut adrift slightly after their last-minute loss at Turkey the other day. That means France and Turkey are out to 18 points and all but secured qualification. There’s still pride for the Eagles to play for and they’ll want to put them to the sword.
All in all it is largely an anti-Moldova bet; every time we’ve opposed them we’ve profited so I see no need to go away from that train of thought here. I also can’t swerve the almost 5/1 quotes (19/4 Coral) on Albania to win both halves, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Kosovo v Montenegro | Monday 14th October 2019, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Sunday night saw a barrage of cards dishes out in the qualifiers and I’m happy to go into that market for a match on Monday night.
This is a huge game for Kosovo after Czech Republic beat England on Friday night. The relatively new footballing nation are on eight points and a win here would see them trail the Czechs by a single point. They showed what they were all about in the recent visit to St Mary’s to take on England.
Exciting, brave and enterprising going forward, Kosovo are a breath of fresh air to the international game.
Bookies have started to give Kosovo the respect they deserve and are odds-on 8/13 shots to win this game. I think the value could be in the card market though with BetVictor going 23/20 that both sides pick up Over 1.5 Cards. This is a bet you can manufacture through their ‘PriceItUp’ feature and the same bet is odds-on elsewhere.
I’ve talked about the magnitude of the match for the hosts and they won’t be friendly to their counterparts here. Their animated gaffer Bernard Challandes demands an aggressive approach which the natives buy into. Their somewhat cavalier game-plan can leave them exposed and cynicism engulfs the mind, leading to a high number of tactical fouls.
Kosovo have picked up 13 yellows in their five games, giving an average of 2.6 cards per-game. Visitors Montenegro have picked up 12 in their five qualifiers and are therefore averaging 2.4 cards per-game. The stats point is in the direction of a feisty affair.
What’s more we have a Portuguese referee, usually a bright point for cards backers that. Arthur Soares Dias has the whistle and he’s dished out four or more cards in 11 of his last 13 games so he doesn’t take much flack.
Best Bets
Moldova v Albania – Albania to win (4/5 Marathon)
Moldova v Albania – Albania to win both halves (19/4 Coral)
Kosovo v Montenegro – Both Teams Over 1.5 Cards (23/20 BetVictor)
