Should any team be priced up as short as 1/3 to win a European Championship quarter-final in 90 minutes? Probably not. But those are the odds surfacing on Euro 2012 favourites Germany to produce the goods when they meet rank outsiders Greece for their last eight clash.
Joachim Low’s side were the only team to win every group game so you can forgive bookmakers for caution. But is this Greek side a million miles away from the model that stunned world football when triumphing in 2004? No. So they deserve a bit more respect.
That’s great news for punters as Greece have again been underestimated. They’re in the quarter-finals because they are a damn tough team to beat. Poland found that out despite playing a decent chunk of their fixture against 10-men. So did Russia, who crashed out of the tournament after falling behind to Fernando Santos’ team.
Greece arrived at Euro 2012 having lost just once in 20 games. They qualified having conceded just five goals in 10 games while edging out Croatia for top spot. The debt-ridden nation’s early performances were flawed by poor first-half displays but against the Russians, Santos’ men performed admiralty for 90 minutes and deserved the three points
Expect a similar, stifling display when Germany take to the field. Mario Gomez and co will be required to show plenty of guile to break through the defensive barriers in Gdansk. With Germany winning their three group games by a single goal, we think there’s huge value in getting with Greece in the Asian Handicap.
Bodog have Greece +1.25 at 5/4 in the Asian Handicap. A Greece win or a draw sees us collect in full while we’ll win half if the Germans win by one goal, a terrific insurance policy as there’s no denying Germany have match-winners throughout their side.
We do think the tournament favourites will ultimately progress to the last four, but we don’t think it will be as straightforward as the layers seem to think and we’re happy to have Greece on our side.
Greece +1.25 at 5/4 with Bodog
Key stats
- These sides have met just twice before with Germany winning on both occasions.
- Germany have opened the scoring in all of their Euro 2012 matches so far.
- Greece have scored the last goal in all of their Euro 2012 matches so far.
