England v Croatia: Two or three reasons to back goals at Wembley

THE excellent Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) runs the rule over England’s Nations League fixture with Croatia on Sunday afternoon at Wembley.

England v Croatia | Sunday 18th November 2018, 14:00 | Sky Sports

England entertain Croatia today in a game that has a lot more significance than was probably imagined when the Nations League was devised. Still, I suppose that shows the success of the competition when all three scenarios are possible for both sides in the final game of the group.

I did look at the goalscorer markets initially as I thought – contrary to the popular view – that Raheem Sterling was exceptional when these two sides met at the World Cup in the summer, but there is insufficient value in the prices.

Instead, I will keep it relatively simple and back two or three goals to be scored at 11/10 with BetVictor. This has been a winner in 14 of Southgate’s 30 matches as England boss, which suggests that there is little value in the bet. However, there is a huge range of ability in the sides they have faced and it is worth noting that such a bet was a winner in five of England’s seven matches at the World Cup.

I feel that both sides are better going forward than at the back and struggle to see either winning the game 1-0. Both sides will need the insurance of a second goal so I think this bet gives us a lot of angles.

In truth, England are too short in the outrights but I prefer this bet to backing Croatia on the handicap.