Egypt v Morocco: Quarter-final contest may go the distance

MARK O’HAIRE’S (@MarkOHaire) continues his African Cup of Nations analysis by looking at Sunday’s quarter-final encounter between Egypt and Morocco.

Egypt v Morocco | Sunday 19:00 | Eurosport

Egypt

• Egypt have W17-D5-L0 in their last 22 AFCON games, conceding just 1 goal in their last 8 AFCON games.
• Egypt qualified as Group D winners, beating Ghana and Uganda 1-0 and drawing 0-0 with Mali.
• Egypt have recorded five successive shutouts in all competitions and only lost 1/13 matches – the defeat came in a friendly.
• Mohamed Salah has been involved in both Egyptian goals and is the Pharaohs must trusted attacking weapon.
• Egypt haven’t beaten Morocco in 30 years (W0-D4-L8), scoring just 1 goal in their last 8 head-to-heads.

Morocco

• Morocco have reached the quarter-finals for the first time since 2004 and the first occasion in five attempts.
• Morocco head coach Herve Renard is aiming to become the first boss to win 3 AFCON titles with 3 different nations – he’s only lost 2/22 AFCON games.
• Morocco’s most potent weapons are the set-piece deliveries of Faycal Fajr and Mbark Boussoufa and they lack of a recognised top-level striker.
• Morocco had 24 hours extra rest but were delayed in leaving Oyem. When they arrived in Port-Gentil, their hotel wasn’t ready and they were forced to find an alternative.
• Morocco are unbeaten against Egypt in 30 years (W8-D4-L0) and have conceded just 1 goal in their last 8 meetings.

Summary

History suggests we’re unlikely to see another 0-0 draw in the quarter-finals at the 2017 AFCON tournament following Saturday night’s goalless game between Senegal and Cameroon.

Only 3/36 (8%) quarter-final ties since 2000 finished 0-0 and no competition recorded more than one per last-eight tie. However, I do believe this meeting could go the distance – 13/36 (36%) contests went to extra-time and so there’s mileage in the 15/8 (SkyBet) quotes on a stalemate here on Sunday.

I’m going to also enter the Method Of Victory market and back Penalty Shoot-Out at 10/3 (SkyBet). Neither team are particularly convincing in the final third and prefer a pragmatic approach – we can only expect such styles to be heightened amongst the tension of a knockout tie.

Best Bets

Egypt v Morocco – Draw (15/8 SkyBet)

Egypt v Morocco – A penalty shoot-out to decide the tie (10/3 SkyBet)

TOPICS AFCON International Football Tips