CORRECT SCORE king Glen Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) returns with three more big value bets from the weekend coupon.
Burnley v Brighton | Sunday 13.15 | Sky Sports 1
Sunday provides a fantastic game from the Championship. Second-placed Burnley take on third-placed Brighton and I do like the look of the Clarets at 28/17 with Marathon.
Turf Moor has been somewhat of a fortress with Burnley winning eight of their last 10 home fixtures. Visitors Brighton are unbeaten on the road this season with a W3-D5-L0 record.
Six of Burnley’s previous 10 home matches have had Over 2.5 goals, with 50% of Brighton’s previous 10 away also going Over 2.5 Goals. The Over 2.5 Goals price is rather big at 6/4 with William Hill – I would have had it closer to 5/6, so I think there is some value to be had in the price.
The Both Teams To Score price of 23/20 with 888 is also very big. 60% of Burnley’s home outings resulted in winning BTTS bets and 70% of Brighton’s away games have followed suit. I would have both teams to score at 1/2.
A statistic to further increase the push for goals is that there had been a goal in the first half of 80% of the previous 10 games at Turf Moor. Meanwhile, Burnley have scored two goals or more in seven of their Turf Moor matches, increasing confidence in my selection of a Burnley win.
The Clarets to win 2-1 is 11/1 with BetVictor.
Newcastle v Leicester | Saturday 15.00
Leicester roll into the north-east with a fair bit of swagger, sitting only one point behind Arsenal and Manchester City.
Leicester have only lost one of their previous 10 away games, that being a 4-3 defeat to Spurs last season. With three wins and three draws from their six away this season, Leicester have proved to be very effective on their travels from the King Power.
At the other end of the table Newcastle have been struggling to put together any sort of run, with only one victory at St James Park this season. The Over 2.5 Goals angle looks an attractive bet at 1.74 with Marathonbet – six of Newcastle’s previous 10 home games have produced Over 2.5 goals, with 4/6 this season.
Seven of Leicester’s 10 away fixtures have produced Over 2.5 goals, with 5/6 this season. I would have Overs down as 1/2 shot. So there is some juice in that 1.74!
Further statistics that point towards an open game is the recent Both Teams To Score percentages. Seven of Newcastle’s previous 10 at St James Park have seen BTTS including 4/6 this term.
Leicester boast an even better record with 8 of their previous 10 away trips providing a result for BTTS backers. 3/5 is available at 10Bet – I would have BTTS down as a 2/5 play.
An interesting statistic is, Leicester have been behind in 6/10 away games at half time. Something that could be worth having a punt on at a big price is Newcastle/Leicester – Half-Time/Full-Time result available at 28/1 with 888.
With all the statistics taken into account, I’m going to take a draw, both teams have been held in three of their six home/away games this campaign. And the 2-2 can be snapped up at 13/1 with BetVictor.
Bristol City v Hull | Saturday 12.30 | Sky Sports 1
Top of the table Hull travel to Ashton Gate to take on the struggling Bristol City.
Hull have been in fantastic form, winning four of their previous five away games and drawing the other against Sheffield Wednesday. With impressive wins against Middlesbrough and Birmingham also to note, Hull do look of some value at 7/4 with Betfred.
Bristol City have found a little bit of form of late at Ashton Gate, with wins over Wolves and Nottingham Forest. Having been beaten in six of their previous 10 home outings and a disastrous run of results, it was important the Robins started to find their feet in the Championship.
Hull have certainly proved to like the Under 2.5 Goals market this season, with only one of their previous 10 away matches breaking the line.
In contrast, Bristol City have been a hard team to judge when it comes to the Overs/Unders at Ashton Gate with their 10 games being split down the middle. However, four of the five games that saw three goals or more arrived in matches that Steve Cotterill’s side lost.
There has been a goal in the first-half of all previous 10 Bristol City home games and there has been a goal before the interval in 7 of Hull’s last 10 on the road. So I wouldn’t be surprised if there is a goal in the first 45 minutes.
With Over 2.5 Goals trading at biggish odds, it may be worth backing the Overs and cashing out if there is a goal in the first half of the game. But I’m going to take a 2-0 Hull win at 12/1 with BetVictor.
Best Bets
Burnley v Brighton – Burnley to win 2-1 (11/1 BetVictor)
Newcastle v Leicester – 2-2 draw (13/1 BetVictor)
Bristol City v Hull – Hull to win 2-0 (12/1 BetVictor)
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TOPICS Football League Tips Premier League Tips
