CHRIS GRAHAM (@chrisgraham79) has dipped into the stats and trends and picked out four well-fancied horses to avoid this week at Cheltenham Festival.
Supreme Novices Hurdle | Tuesday 12th March 2019, 13:30 | ITV
Trend: Eight of the last nine winners had won last time out.
A fairly sensible stat this one, you’d want a horse in good form coming into the big race. That’s certainly the case for five of the first six in the betting but second fav Angels Breath let’s the side down.
Nicky Henderson’s well-fancied charge emerged from his equine flu delay last month at Kempton in the Grade 2 Dovecote and was beaten at 8/11 by Southfield Stone.
Arkle Chase | Tuesday 12th March 2019, 14:10 | ITV
Trend: Twelve of the last 13 winners had won last time out.
Similar to above, with 2009 winner Forpadydeplasterer the odd one out after he finished second in his prep race. Lalor did worse than that though when finishing third in the Henry VIII Novices Chase back in December.
We haven’t seen him since and on those stats he’s doomed to fail on Tuesday.
Ballymore Novices Hurdle | Wednesday 13th March 2019, 14:30 | ITV
Trend: The last 19 winners were aged five or six.
Yup, you have to go back to 1998 and French Holly to find a horse older than six winning this race. Before then it was 1974! So that has to be a massive concern for supporters of favourite Champ in this race as he’s a seven-year-old.
Cheltenham Gold Cup | Friday 15th March 2019, 15:30 | ITV
Trend: Only one horse has defended their Gold Cup crown in the last 47 years.
The fact that it’s eluded so many outstanding horses just shows you how hard is it to defend your Gold Cup title. This gruelling three and a quarter mile chase can leave it’s mark and Best Mate is the only horse to follow up since 1972 when he did it twice in 2003 and 2004.
Defending champ Native River has it all to do on the back of that as he bids to make it two in a row.
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