burnley welcome Tottenham in Monday night’s opening Premier League encounter. Matthew Kirby (@M_Kirby95) delivers his betting analysis.
Burnley v Tottenham | Monday 26th October 2020, 20:00 | Sky Sports
Tottenham bounced back from letting a 3-0 lead slip to West Ham by beating LASK in the Europa League.
The pleasing factor from Thursday’s win won’t just have been the result but the fact they were able to give Harry Kane a rest ahead of this busy run of games before next month’s internationals.
Burnley picked up their first point and kept their first clean sheet of the season in the Premier League’s first goalless draw.
The Clarets edged the Expected Goals (xG) 1.14 to West Brom’s 1.06xG, but it was Baggies new boy Karlan Ahearne-Grant who had his goal chalked off by VAR.
Sean Dyche’s men will be well-drilled as ever and they’ll need to be switched on from kick-off because as we saw last weekend Spurs can fly out of the traps.
The key to Kane
It’s been a great start to the season for Harry Kane, who already has hit five league goals. But it’s his all-round game that makes him a constant threat for José Mourinho’s side.
With the likes of Heung-min Son, Gareth Bale and Lucas Moura all available for selection, then there are options for Mourinho to combine with Kane.
The England captain has struck up a strong partnership with Son. In fact, six of Kane’s seven assists this season have teed up the South Korean – the most successful combination in the top-flight.
While Kane leads the way for assists this season, the numbers tweeted by @EPLStatman prove how much of an impact Kane is having on this Spurs side:
- Most shots (25)
- Most shots on target (13)
- Most big chances created (7)
- Most assists (7)
- Most goal involvements (12)
The betting angles
Despite their implosion last weekend, this is a game that they should be winning. The Lilywhites have hit the most shots on target this season (37), a metric where Burnley rank 18th – just 14 – albeit they have played a game less.
On top of that, Spurs have created a high volume of quality chances and sit second for Expected Goals For (xGF) at 12.4.
But at the back, they have given away a few chances – 7.4 Expected Goals Against – and have kept just two clean sheets in their last 28 away league games. And those were at two of the relegated sides in Watford and Bournemouth.
With Burnley having not won in five, plus Spurs winning their two away games this campaign 5-2 and 6-1, then the Spurs and both teams to score could be the way to go.
Spurs being unable to keep clean sheets on the road will give Burnley hope, especially with Chris Wood and Ashley Barnes leading the line.
The Austrian has only returned to the fray in the last couple of games and he’s looked one of their most likely goalscorers. He hit three shots on target in the goalless draw against West Brom; his side only had four on the Baggies’ goal in the 90 minutes.
While some firms go as short as 4/11 for Barnes to hit the target, Bet365 go EVS, which looks a good price given how eager he was to shoot on sight versus West Brom.
Barnes has three goals against Spurs in his career and scored on his last appearance against them. So I’ll be taking the EVS on him testing Hugo Lloris.
I’ll be waiting for the team news to see who starts at right-back or right wing-back for Spurs. They’ll face Dwight McNeill who is one of the hosts more creative sparks.
If it’s Serge Aurier, then the 3+ at 13/10 with Ladbrokes will be the way to go. The Ivorian has returned to the Spurs line-up in the last couple of games and in each match, he’s recorded four tackles – that’s 16/5 with Ladbrokes.
If it’s Matt Doherty, then I’d still be interested. He was the king of 2+ tackles last season and that bar is EVS with Sky Bet. I’ll wait to see which one starts before getting involved.
People will be looking for the Son and Kane assists, where Sky Bet go 12/1 on both recording one at Turf Moor. While at the time of writing, there was no return the favour market that some have seen rich rewards backing.
But for me, it’s these two plays, while waiting to see who’ll have the job marshalling McNeill.
Best Bets
Burnley vs Tottenham – Tottenham to win and Both Teams To Score (5/2 Bet365)
Burnley vs Tottenham – Ashley Barnes Over 0.5 Shots On-Target (1/1 Bet365)
