BUNDESLIGA boff Lucas Swain-Britton (@LucasSwain95) takes an look at tonight’s second leg Bundesliga promotion/relegation play-off between Holstein Kiel and Wolfsburg.
Holstein Kiel v Wolfsburg | Monday 21st May 2018, 19:30 | BT Sport
I have a confession to make: I really don’t want to write this piece. I love writing, especially for this website and the success of the Football Blogging Awards this year, but this is the final meaningful match in the German football calendar and it means there’s a void pending.
Whilst the break is softened this year by the World Cup, it’s not quite the same as the Bundesliga football I’ve come to love over the years. Still, that’s enough of me whining as you’re not here to read my soliloquy.
Relegation or Safety?
When I was writing my piece for the first leg in this fixture – which Wolfsburg won 3-1 – I was fairly adamant Wolfsburg were going to be triumphant. That may sound like a brag, which I simply do not intend, but in truth the Wolves got off lucky by the final whistle.
Holstein Kiel’s ability going forward was documented in my previous piece. They were the top goalscorers in the 2.Bundesliga and Marvin Ducksch was simply brilliant for them throughout the season. However, he and his teammates squandered a handful of chances in the final stages of the first leg.
What became very clear to me in the first leg, as I suspected following both the Bundesliga and 2.Bundesliga this season, was the gulf between the two sides was big. There were many times where Malli skipped through the deeper midfield and defence and it was no surprise the Turkish midfielder ended the match with a goal.
The betting
Heading into the fixture with a two-goal lead, it’d be natural for Wolfsburg to head into the fixture with a defensive mentality. However, whilst the Wolves managed to win the relegation play-off legs against Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 last year, I don’t think they have the capability to keep out Kiel with such ease.
I think Wolfsburg need one more goal to confirm their Bundesliga status and Kiel have nothing to lose heading into this match, so we can expect an attacking mentality from them.
I was tempted by over 1.5 Kiel goals in this fixture, but instead I’m going to head with over 2.5 goals and BTTS, as if the home side gun players forward in the later stages to chase an extra goal we could find them exposed on the counter.
I quite like -0.25 Asian Handicap for Kiel as a smaller play, but I’m not as confident in this. I’m not tipping it up, but I think it’s a decent selection.
TOPICSBest Bets
Holstein Kiel v Wolfsburg – Over 2.5 goals and BTTS (11/10 SkyBet)
