Bournemouth v Watford: Tight six-pointer expected

DANIEL MCCULLOCH (@DMcCulloch1984) shares his favourite fancies from Sunday’s Premier League six-pointer between Bournemouth and Watford.

Bournemouth v Watford | Sunday 12th January 2020, 14:00 | Sky Sports

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Watford are a popular pick on Sunday afternoon given the recent fortunes of these two sides. Bournemouth have just four points from their last 10 Premier League matches while Watford have seen a performance and result boost since Quique Sanchez Flores left the Hornets. They have 10 points from their last four games, with wins against Wolves and Manchester United in that sample.

However, I cannot back them at 7/4 when the Hertfordshire side have just one away victory so far this season. Moreover, while they have clearly performed well under Nigel Pearson I do think they’ve had some fortune in each of their victories. While they deserved to beat both United and Aston Villa, they were benefitted by goalkeeping howlers and refereeing decisions in both of them.

There is no doubt that Bournemouth’s recent form has been wretched and they have one of the most severe injury lists in the top flight. Nathan Ake, David Brooks and Josh King are key absentees and without the latter two the Dorset side have far less attacking threat.

Since they were promoted to the Premier League in 2015, Bournemouth have been indebted to their forwards for keeping them in the division as they have found it difficult to keep clean sheets. However, during their recent poor run they have struggled to score goals, finding the net just twice in their last seven games.

Since Sanchez Flores left, Watford have been far more solid defensively, conceding just six goals in their seven league games since the start of December. Given that they’ve faced five of the current top seven in that sample that is a great effort.

All this leads me to oppose goals. There have been three or more in just five of Bournemouth’s last 14 league games and only two of Watford’s seven matches under Hayden Mullins and Nigel Pearson. Under 2.5 Goals is 10/11 with Bet365 and that gets my vote.