THERE’S no stopping Card King Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) at the moment. His next best bet arrives on Thursday night.
Millwall v Oxford | Thursday 19.45 | Sky Sports 1
Millwall host Oxford in the Johnstone’s Paint Trophy semi final first leg tie at The Den on Thursday night with plenty at stake.
Referee Stuart Attwell is yet to officiate a Millwall game this season. He has however already taken in 25 other matches so far in 2015-16 and in those games, across all competitions and football divisions, he has handed out a total of 70 yellow cards and three reds. That’s an average of just over 3.00 cards-per-game.
Attwell was most card happy in the match between Plymouth and Crawley on 3 October with a total of six yellows being dished out. He also showed five cautions and one red in the match between Nottingham Forest and Burnley on 20 October.
In League One, Millwall collect an average of 2.33 cards-per-game whilst the visitors from League Two typically collect 1.64 cards-per-game – that implies a total of 3.97 cards could be expected when they lock horns.
I have looked at the corresponding fixtures at this stage of the competition in previous years and the total card numbers in first leg encounters read 3-4-5-2. 2 That’s encouraging.
Bet365 are pricing this up at Under/Over 2.5 Cards. Attwell is a fairly lenient referee but with the past three ties in previous seasons having gone Over the line, I’m getting involved in a pro-cards bet at 4/5.
Best Bets
Millwall v Oxford – Over 2.5 Cards (4/5 Bet365)
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