CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) dips into Thursday night’s Johnstone Paint Trophy area semi-final for next dose of bookings goodness.
Fleetwood v Barnsley | Thursday 19.45 | Sky Sports 5
Oxford booked their place in the final of the Johnstone Paint Trophy by getting past Millwall on Wednesday night.
Now it is the Northern section’s turn as Fleetwood and Barnsley lock horns for the right to play The U’s at Wembley.
For a lot of these players this represents their best and possibly only hope of ever playing on the hallowed turf of the national stadium.
The tie is evenly poised after a 1-1 draw in the first meeting at Oakwell.
Anyway, first the bad news. The referee is Eddie Ilderton and he averages a measly 2.38 cards-per-game, so far from an ideal appointment for overs backers.
However, the good news is that the historical cards stats for second leg matches are very encouraging.
There were four cards issued when Walsall and Preston met last year and seven dished out when Fleetwood narrowly lost out to Chesterfield in 2013/14.
If we go back further, four were flashed when Crewe and Coventry battled it out in 2012/13 and five were shown in the 2011/12 dogfight between Oldham and Chesterfield.
Indeed, if we include the Southern area semi-finals, the line of Over 3.5 Cards has won in 8/8 outings.
Whisteblower Ilderton is a worry but these are dream stats – Over 3.5 Cards has a 100% recent record and has to be backed on Bet365’s Asian line at even-money.
Best Bets
Fleetwood v Barnsley – Over 3.5 Cards Asian line (1/1 Bet365)
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