CARD KING Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) recommends an “unmissable” opportunity to get behind a bookings bet in Serie A on Sunday.
Chievo v Empoli | Sunday 14.00
Serie A action catches my eye this weekend as there’s a new referee on the scene for the match between Chievo and Empoli in Verona.
His name is Rosario Abisso and he boasts the most incredible stats I’ve ever seen in six years experience of covering the cards market.
His total cards figures in Serie B games this year read 8-10-15-7-8-12-7 – that’s an average of 9.57 cards-per-game. Taking a wider sample, his career average is 6.51 cards-per-game and that includes Coppa Italia games where very few cautions are normally issued.
Abisso has officiated two Serie A fixtures (back in in 2014/15) and dished out 10 bookings; clearly he is a relative novice at the top level.
Chievo are averaging 2.84 cards-per-game and Empoli 2.89 cards-per-game – that implies 5.73 cards could be expected in Sunday’s showdown. However, that’s ignoring this referee’s stats.
Of course, in football you never know but if he plays ball (and bear in mind he hasn’t given fewer than seven cards in league action this year) then Bet365 have got this hopelessly wrong.
The Over 5 Cards option on the Asian line has now gone. You can still back Over 5.5 Cards with Bet365 at 1.85 and this compares favourably with the 2/5 offered by William Hill, who appear to have their fingers on the pulse a bit more.
Talking of William Hill, they are brave offering 2/1 on Over 3 Cards in the first-half market (we’d need four to win).
This official’s first-half cards totals in league action read 4-6-9-5-6-2-1 – so five of those seven would have seen this selection win. At the price, I feel it’s well worth a small dabble.
We have already financially benefited from identifying officials with none or limited top-flight experience in Italy with Fabio Maresca and Luca Pairetto. And neither of those guys had stats such as this guy.
Of course it is not guaranteed but this bet looks an unmissable opportunity. So my main recommendation is Over 5.5 cards with Bet365 at 1.85 with a small play on Over 3 Cards in the first-half cards at 2/1 with William Hill.
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Chievo v Empoli – Over 5.5 Cards (17/20 Bet365)
Chievo v Empoli – Over 3 Cards in the first-half (2/1 William Hill)
