THE ever-popular Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has found three angles on the bookings markets for Saturday’s football.
What a day to be alive! Three of the most prolific card issuers of all time make their season debuts and I can’t wait…
I’m so excited that I can’t choose between them so decided to get involved with all three.
Osasuna v Real Sociedad | Saturday 17.15 | Sky Sports 3
Alfonso Izquierdo (Senor Confetti) kicks things off as Osasuna host Real Sociedad in Pamplona.
The great man cooled off after Christmas from a card perspective after dishing out 55 cards in his first seven matches – that’s an average of 7.85 cards-per-game.
11/12 La Liga games have gone ‘under’ so far and that won’t continue.
The past four meetings between these two teams had total cards numbers of 10-4-8-7 at an average of 7.25 cards-per-game.
With Confetti in charge anything can happen and with a good recent head-to-head record, I’m backing Over 65 Bookings Points at 10/11 with William Hill.
Napoli v AC Milan | Saturday 19.45 | BT Sport
Next up, the Italian equivalent of Senor Confetti, Paolo Valeri, is back in action as AC Milan travel to a Gonzalo Higuain-less Napoli.
The 38–year-old Valeri who hails from Rome averaged 6.75 cards-per-game in 2015/16. That is an increase on his 2014/15 average of 5.94 cards-per-game and nearly a two cards increase on his 2013/14 average of 4.94 cards-per-game.
There’s a clear pattern of him giving more and more cards.
Frankly, Valeri can give cards at anytime. He has a low time of first card (21.7 minutes) but I’m looking elsewhere for this match.
His second-half cards average is 4.56 per-game and that is above average for Italy. It won in 11/16 Serie A matches he covered last season.
Furthermore that has won in the past two encounters between these two teams. I’m backing Over 3 Second-Half Cards at 17/20 with William Hill.
Leganes v Atletico Madrid | Saturday 21.15 | Sky Sports 3
Finally, young whisteblower Jose Maria Sanchez Martinez makes his return to La Liga action.
He averaged 7.11 cards-per-game in 2015/16. His 12 matches gave total card figures of 9-7-10-5-8-14-2-4-11-13-6-12 – as you can see some very high make-ups there.
The low card counts were games involving Real Madrid and Barcelona. An interesting trend – does he get intimidated?
He hasn’t officiated Atletico Madrid yet in his fledgling career so that remains an unknown.
He has covered Leganes before and shown them eight cards in three matches.
The bookies are expecting plenty of cards with Over 6.5 Cards as short as 4/6.
With his attitude to carding Atletico Madrid players a doubt, I prefer backing Over 3 Leganes Cards at 10/11 with William Hill – the same bet is just 4/6 with Paddy Power so this looks value.
TOPICS European Football FootballBest Bets
Osasuna v Real Sociedad – Over 65 Bookings Points (10/11 William Hill)
Napoli v AC Milan – Over 3 Second-Half Cards (17/20 William Hill)
Leganes v Atletico Madrid – Over 3 Leganes Cards (10/11 William Hill)
