ARSENAL welcome North London rivals Arsenal to the Emirates in the Premier League’s standout showdown from the fourth weekend of action. We asked Tom Love (@TomLove_18) to source the best bets.
Arsenal v Tottenham | Sunday 1st September 2019, 16:30 | Sky Sports
The North London Derby returns to our screens on Sunday with two sides that are failing to convince so far this season.
Arsenal have picked up two wins and a loss. The loss is slightly excusable with it being against Liverpool at fortress Anfield but they were miles behind the Reds. Their win at Newcastle on opening weekend was a bit of a non-affair, which they probably just about deserved to win. The Gunners’ performance at home to Burnley was of concern though with Unai Emery’s men losing the Expected Goals (xG) battle and second on the other major metrics.
It was well documented that Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang managed to outscore his seasonly xG last season as he shared the Golden Boot along with Mo Salah and Sadio Mane. With the additions of Dani Ceballos and Nicolas Pepe, I expect him to get even more chances this term and that does bode well. I think Arsenal will improve their performances as those two key new players settle in.
At the Emirates, Arsenal are a much stronger force – the stats back that up too. The Gunners are unbeaten in 18 of their last 19 Premier League matches on home soil. What’s more, they’ve scored two or more goals in 10 of their last 11 here. This game last season ended 4-2 to Emery’s side and they’ll be hoping for a similar result come Sunday evening.
Spurs were lacking in creativity and width last week as they surprisingly went down 1-0 against Newcastle. It’s a surprise because they’re usually much stronger in front of their fans – away from home they’ve failed to win their last seven in the Premier League.
Mauricio Pochettino has been negative and tetchy in his press conferences, possibly down to a lack of quantity in signings. Poch has been willing to keep a tight knit squad but they haven’t replaced Kieran Trippier at right back and they have plenty of central midfielders but no wingers. When there’s no wingers you need the width from full back but it’s just too sparse. That makes sPURS very predictable and it has to worry supporters.
Significantly for the visitors they’re without Tanguy N’Dombele, Kyle Walker-Peters, Ryan Sessegnon, Juan Foyth and Eric Dier. Dele Alli is still a doubt too. Serge Aurier hasn’t looked comfortable when he’s come in at full back and I think Emery will try target that.
The betting angles
The betting sees Arsenal as 7/5 favourites, Spurs at 2/1 and the draw the biggest price of the three at 27/10. I think the bookies have got it pretty much bang on. Both Teams To Score is 1/2 and you can see that copping given Arsenal’s dodgy defence and their good home form. I’ll combine that with Arsenal double chance using Bet365’s BetBuilder which gives us an odds against quotes of 21/20.
Arsenal do tend to pick up a few more cards than most and I’m surprised we can get them at even-money off a 0 start on the Asian Card Handicap with Bet365. Arsenal have picked up six cards in three games whereas Spurs have picked up three in three games. Last season the Gunners collected 73 yellows – Spurs just 57.
Just because they’re at home doesn’t mean they’ll be less feisty, I think that’s a bet with some value in it. If both sides pick up exactly the same amount of cards then we get our money back, if Arsenal pick up more then we double our money.
TOPICS Premier League TipsBest Bets
Arsenal v Tottenham – Arsenal double chance and Both Teams To Score – 21/20 (Bet365)
Arsenal v Tottenham – Arsenal 0 Asian Card Handicap (1/1 Bet365)
