Porto v Leicester: Short Porto could fluff their lines

LEICESTER have already won their Champions League group, but how will they fare in their closing game against Porto. Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) eyes up the odds.

Porto v Leicester | Wednesday 19:45 | BT Sport Europe

The curtains come down tonight on Group G of the Champions League and incredibly Leicester come into their Matchday 6 match against Porto with nothing to play for.

Yes, The Foxes have already won the group and are safely through to the Last 16 in the New Year. It’s a sentence that would have looked absurd a couple of years ago.

Second string

With this predicament upon them, Claudio Ranieri has decided to leave his key players at home and the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Jamie Vardy, Robert Huth and Islam Slimanni will stay in England.

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Because of that and the fact the club have nothing to play for we’re getting odds of 11/1 on the English champions on Wednesday. They’re too big for me.

High stakes

Opponents Porto are very much in the thick of things here though. They have a two point cushion over third place FC Copenhagen but have lost the head to head with their Danish rivals. That means that if Copenhagen win in Brugge, Porto must win here.

So as you can imagine, the stakes are considerably higher for the Portuguese outfit on Wednesday night. They need to win and are chalked up at 4/11. Too short for me.

Ok, so let’s find an angle to take on the home side at those cramped odds. Firstly, just because they need to win doesn’t necessarily mean they will. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side failed to beat FC Copenhagen at home and could only nudge past Club Brugge 1-0 there.

Goal shy

Their current form is hardly inspiring either. True, they’re unbeaten in 12 matches but six of those were draws and their lack of scoring prowess is a worry.

Remarkably Porto have scored just three goals in their last eight matches and are in third position in their domestic league. To suggest they’re toothless might not be far off the truth. The pressure on them here may be overwhelming.

Leicester may have a second-string side in action here but the first team are hardly pulling up trees at the moment. The chance to play at the Dragao may inspire them and with no pressure on their shoulders they can operate in freedom. I’ll back with them with a 1.25 goal head start.