ANOTHER profitable day for Mark Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) on Tuesday. He’s got three bets lined up for Wednesday.
Stan Wawrinka v Dusan Lajovic | Wednesday 10:00
I discussed Stan’s tough year in the outright preview and I’m going to chance an upset in the 2nd round at a big price. He’s lost priced 1/14, 2/11, 2/9 and 1/4 this year, and at 1/14 he could be vulnerable again.
Dusan Lajovic is 11-8 on clay this year and has beaten Fernando Verdasco at 5/2, Pablo Andujar, Jack Sock and Borna Coric. He made the 4th round of the French last year before losing to Rafael Nadal and beat Federico Delbonis along the way when priced 10/3. Delbonis of course dispatched Stan in his home country last week.
With Wawrinka suffering a shock defeat to Guillermo Garcia-Lopez (11/2) in the 1st round last year, it could be worth chancing Lajovic at 8/1 with Bet365.
Kei Nishikori v Thomaz Bellucci | Wednesday 11:30
Again in the outright preview we discussed both Nishikori’s poor record here and his disappointing losses this year. Bellucci comes into this in great form having won Geneva last week as well as taking the 1st set off Novak Djokovic and beating Roberto Bautista-Agut in Rome.
Kei is 11-2 on clay this year with his defeats coming against Djokovic and Andy Murray, so I’m not expecting a shock but it could be closer than Bellucci’s 6/1 odds suggest.
Last year Nishikori suffered an upset against a leftie in Martin Klizan losing in straights sets in the opening round and Thomaz could give him some trouble again.
Bellucci has suffered defeats in recent years here to clay courters Fabio Fognini and Richard Gasquet with neither being by a deficit of more than six games.
Dominic Thiem v Pablo Cuevas | Wednesday 11:30
Thiem did the business for us in the 1st round cruising past Aljaz Bedene to beat the handicap and I think he’s nicely priced to beat Pablo Cuevas on Wednesday.
He’s beaten all of Giles Simon, John Isner, Fabio Fognini, Leonardo Mayer and Ernests Gulbis on the dirt this year and comes into this 10-4 on the clay.
Cuevas made the final of Istanbul but has suffered early exits in Rome, Madrid and Barcelona. Having never made it past this stage in seven attempts I expect Thiem to have too much over the course of five.
Best Bets
Stan Wawrinka v Dusan Lajovic – Dusan Lajovic to win (8/1 Bet365)
Kei Nishikori v Thomaz Bellucci – Thomaz Bellucci +6.5 Games (Evens Betfred)
Dominic Thiem v Pablo Cuevas – Dominic Thiem to win (10/11 Skybet)
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